I'd like to point out two things here:
1. There are common library functions that we put in single files. These are imported by a lot of other files. The fact that these incur a large recompile cost is unfortunate and I think it doesn't have to be this way if dependencies were calculated at a more granular level.
2. The far larger implication to compile time becoming exponential is coupling of concerns. This is solely in the developer's responsibility. For a type system that guarantees correctness of code, there is no way around the fact that all affected modules must recompile. eg, if a fundamental law of physics were to change, the whole universe would have to recompute.
So I think for a 'substantial group of developers', the focus should be on helping people to recognise what is coupling and how to design de-coupled systems.
As far as Scala goes, Grzegorz Kossakowski has done work trying to get major performance improvements out of Scala type checking, and his numbers look very promising. Barring some Shapeless-style type level computations, Scala could compile quite fast.