there are 1000 networks being created everyday (based on what ning says) I would assume at least 900 are useless and would never come to anything, 75 would be small 7K+ users, 20 will be a good size 25K+, 5 will be 50K+. all these numbers are completely pulled out of my ass so please don't hold me to them it just to show you that there is a big potential there, at least I think there.
I own a network on ning(for fun) that has 2500 members and it has only been around for 5 months, the site caters to a specific type of profession (court reporting) and so far I have bought 2 apps that I installed on my network and I can assure you I would by more if there were around.
Incentivizable offers are a good short term solution. I went from $60 a day to maybe $2 a day whereas subscriptions of $5/month hold steady.