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I am not sure I understand this.

It takes just as much skill to guess if volatility will go up or go down as it does to guess if prices will.

The best models we know of (say GARCH) will still pace the information in the option prices.

A key part of how options premiums are priced is the expected, or implied volatility (IV) of the underlying (the stock/future/whatever). Therefore you can be an options seller (selling calls and puts) to get high premium, expecting that before the options expire, the IV of the underlying will decrease, making it more likely you can keep the credit received from selling those high-IV priced options. It can also be historically shown that the IV for any underlying is about 75%-80% of the time overestimated, in which the price of the underlying turns out to not be as volatile as what was suggested by the IV.

But 20-25% of the time it is more than 3x as volatile. Taleb built his career on this.

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