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Comment by JulianMorrison | Hacker News Reader

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/26/north-korea-nu...

They may have suddenly lost the ability to use their regular test site due to collapse.

They have lost their test site because they demonstrated thermonuclear capabilities. NK is a nice position with their nuclear program, because they demonstrated last year that they have the ability to set of a thermonuclear explosion and the ability the launch intercontinental missiles. From the point of view of nuclear strategy that is a win, because even if they have problems with reliability, nobody is gambling a major city on a 1 in 10-ish chance that the weapons work.

I keep seeing that people think a test site collapse caused this, but if that was the case it isn't like they were going to suddenly be invaded. I think if anything, something internally was to cause this negotiation of peace.

I think Kim is paranoid and scared. Maybe someone convinced him that he's the next Saddam, so he's getting ahead of it to avoid the same fate?

It's impossible to know for certain, but perhaps having invested so much in nuclear weapons and finding that it only made the US more belligerent, they realized that they had to shift their strategy? Or maybe they've been waiting for the opportune moment to extend the olive branch? Become a nuclear power so that they could negotiate from a position of power and get better terms?

It's not that complicated. To get the best concessions you come with biggest chips of your own to trade. Even if NK's intention was to negotiate from day one, they would have gone for nuclear weapons first, given that prior negotiations did not net them satisfactory concessions. What's changed is that they believe they have big enough chips now and Trump is high-variance enough that the gamble is worth it.

Maybe he's just human and rationally wants himself and his family to get out alive? Anyone with a brain and a little knowledge of history can see how easily things can go badly for a dictator and his family.

If Kim Jong-Un can pull things off right, he and his familiy will be able to live out their lives without having to fear being deposed and murdered, probably keeping enough wealth to live in luxury for generations, and maybe going down in history as a well-regarded peacemaking hero on top of it all.

The Chinese may have pressured North Korea to halt testing because of the potential leaks. North Korea can tunnel under another mountain but the risks will be the same. North Korea is dependent on China for trade. Cut that off and North Korea eventually collapses.

Regardless of motivations, if this is a sincere move towards peace then it is a good thing for the world.

So... like Star Trek 6, except where Sulu isn’t right there to notice the sudden loss of the enemy homeworld?

Praxis wasn't the homeworld. It housed their key energy generating facility.

Good to be able to contribute something substantive to an HN discussion :)

That actually makes it more analogous, since this mountain base was a key component of their ability to make war.

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