What are the odds of working at a FANG etc?

So...this is a hard to enunciate and perhaps a bit of a nebulous question, but I'm going to try. Please be patient.

I would like to know what the odds are of a software developer getting a job at one of the top several firms. My reasoning is that, while I know of some people who have gotten in, it would seem there is a tipping point where the odds are so low that there really is no point in making the attempt. It's the lottery ticket problem - the payoff is large, however the odds of winning are infinitesimal.

So, is there a metric of how many developers there are currently divided by how many open positions there are at MSFT, AWS, Facebook etc somehow adjusted for the skill level of the average developer? I understand that skill level is hard if not impossible to judge in an aggregate sort of way, I just want to have an idea if I'm wasting my time even thinking about those companies in my job search.

I was on the job market in finance during the financial crisis. I don't want to go through what I went through then again.