It's hard not to think of Do Androids Dream of Human Sheep when I see Aibo
Don't get me wrong, I want this to succeed. I live in an apartment and work in an office that doesn't allow pets. I want more than anything to have a dog but stop myself because it'd be cruel even with doggy daycare and Rover. A robot dog would be perfect for me. But this is nowhere close to a robot dog.
It is a robot dog. It is a very imperfect, artificial representation of a dog that doesn't really replace the real thing. It's just cheaper and more convenient than the real thing. If you've ever read Philip K Dick's short story, everyone longs for a real pet as opposed to fake robotic ones.
Of course this may change as technology progresses.
Wat? Our dog takes about $30 worth of food per month. Annual vet visits total about $150 (including heartworm meds). If it lives to be 15, we're looking at about a $10,000 lifetime investment. If she got really sick and needed a $5,000 surgery, it'll still be about half the cost of your low end estimate.
Also, my dog loves to cuddle. While Aibo can do some things my dog can't, my dog can do many, many things that Aibo never will.
So costs can vary wildly depending on your situation.
So sure, even living in the Bay Area, we're probably on the low end of average maintenance. But I also know a huge number of Midwest outdoor dogs that eat Ol' Roy food and don't see a vet unless they get something contagious. I'm sure you can spend $30K on a dog, but I've seen evidence that you can spend a fifth of that and still have a happy, healthy dog.
I think the jump from having children to having a toy robot is still a bit too far. In a few decades maybe, if and when AI has come to fruition (that is, real AI, not the machine-learning fad which is so much en vogue at the moment). Until then I think these toy robots are just that, toys. They might be fun, just like other toys. People might get attached to them, just like they can to other toys.
Assuming the EU's human brain simulation project comes to fruition, I wonder at one point we'll be able to raise a human child consciousness in VR—sort of a Tamagotchi but for an actual human consciousness.