Not really, no. This isn't a matter of complexity theory being less useful than promised, it's just a matter of understanding what it tells you.
In complexity theoretic terms, platform-specific micro-optimisations are constant factors. They can have a real impact, but they're only worth worrying about after you've got good complexity.
Bubble-sort in fine-tuned SIMD assembly code will out-perform bubble-sort in Python, but will be far slower than a Python quicksort (except for small inputs).
Notice that we're discussing which hash-map to use, as opposed to which data-structure to use in the first place. Their basic time-complexities are the same, so we have the luxury of worrying about the constant factors.
Linear-scan dictionaries can't compete here, no matter how well micro-optimised. (Again, except for very small inputs.) Complexity theory tells us why.
Additionally, complexity theory is useful when reasoning about large problems (high values of n), but it doesn't tell you how to do the platform-specific micro-optimisations that are important when attacking small problems. Implementation details will dominate there, rather than the number of algorithmic operations.
Anyone who teaches complexity theory without explaining these points, has done their students a disservice.
> I wonder if there's something that's more predictive than big Oh for these types of analysis.
When it comes to real-world performance, there's no substitute for just measuring real-world performance. Detailed analysis of things like cache behaviour, and behaviour under highly concurrent access, could be neat though.
Edit For completeness, I should mention that in extreme cases, there are indeed algorithms with superior complexity which are in practice completely useless, as the break-even point is so awfully high that they could never be useful. Matrix multiplication, for instance, where the algorithms with the best time-complexity are quite literally never useful. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Computational_com...
Perhaps that contradicts my whole point :-P
The other limitation of complexity theory is that in practice we often care about average-case performance, whereas theorists tend to care more about worst-care performance.