AI winter is not on its way. We constantly get new breakthroughs and there's no end in the view. For example, in the last year a number of improvements in GANs were introduced. This is really huge, since GANs are able to learn a dataset structure without explicit labels, and this is a large bottleneck in applying ML more widely.

IMO, we are far away from AGI, but even current technologies applied widely will lead to many interesting things.