> Unless your adversary is lucky enough to pwn the guard for that onion site, they can't even see the correlation.
We're talking about an attacker that can see every byte going over the wire, encrypted or not it's still able to measure the volume of data itself.
> Well, first thing, you don't send many MB directly to someone. You put it on a Tor onion file-share site, and PM the link via Tor.
In that example the attacker wants to determine the location/IP of the hidden service itself. It's pretty well known that high traffic / volume hidden services are some of the easiest targets for global traffic analysis.
> I can imagine a global passive adversary that could log all Internet traffic, and make it searchable. The NSA can somewhat do that.
They don't have to log the data itself simply the meta data and in specific the volume of data sent between vertices in the graph. Various agencies have openly admitted they keep this information and it's not considered "protected" in their view.
This is simply a graph analysis problem, similar to how Bitcoin is pseudo-anonymous unless you use specific methods that aren't built into the core protocol.