People who already own ICE gas vehicles and don't drive them very much might still come out ahead buying $10/gallon fuel vs. acquiring an EV. (I put maybe 1500 miles/year on my car.)
My estimate is based on adjustments to the LANL Green Freedom concept for synthetic gasoline from 2007:
http://bioage.typepad.com/greencarcongress/docs/greenfreedom...
The authors claim that for profitable operation "the price of gasoline at the pump must be about $4.60/gal." This number incorporated the authors' unrealistically optimistic expectations of low-cost Generation III nuclear reactor construction. It rises to $5.69/gallon, adjusting for inflation[1]. The rest of the cost increase comes from my estimate of using renewable electricity sources instead of cheap nuclear power. (It would be even more expensive if I used nuclear power at actually-observed costs of currently-in-progress American reactor construction.)
[1] Yes, I used CPI, and I know it's not really appropriate for capital-intensive industrial projects. This is just a back-of-the-envelope estimate.