There is a basic epistemological flaw that goes on in the Fermi Paradox (and similar arguments): the argument rests on the idea that, given enough time, an event which has non-zero probability will eventually happen. The flaw is that there is no consideration of
if enough time has actually passed, since the probabilities we talk about are often characterized on the level of "we don't conclusively know it to be impossible."
If you look at the statement you yourself make, it requires a lot of assumptions:
* Interstellar colonization is possible (this is explicitly taken as a hypothesis, though)
* The ability to colonize another star system is the ability to colonize a large number of star systems. This is to say, the social consequences of colonization are not going to grow larger with size. A possible counterfactual would be that large civilizations might put more energy into securing control of known systems rather than embarking on further colonization--and the anecdotal evidence from the history of Earth is that this is indeed the case.
* Colonization is a logistic process (which is probably what you really meant when you said exponential, but the difference is a technicality for this discussion). If interstellar travel is really as difficult as our knowledge of physics suggests it to be, then interstellar colonies are likely to develop as completely independent civilizations without maintaining strong ties to their parent motherlands, and subsequent colonization efforts are going to include attempts to "colonize" already-colonized systems and consequently logistic growth wouldn't be achieved.