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On the other end, Vue is a natural move for companies looking to move off of jQuery and AngularJS but afraid or unwilling to make the move to React, and I suspect there are an order of magnitude more companies in this category than companies that have already adopted React.

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I think you are right about the volume of companies in that category, though I think you are underestimating the network effect of a library with as much momentum as React. The libraries are similar enough that, for many (most?) projects, it makes more sense to use the more popular one.

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