It is basically guaranteed to do so unless the business cycle has stopped for good (unlikely). The question in my mind is who the scapegoat is going to be, and how much denial there's going to be if the real effects of slowing growth start becoming apparent.
Step 1 - do dumb and harmful things to increase your popularity among ignorant supporters
Step 2 - blame the innocent for the inevitable crisis
Step 3 - use the crisis you created to justify more dumb and harmful things
Step 4 - multiple crises cascade into catastrophe
Step 5 - use the catastrophe to justify emergency powers, suspend due process, arrest political opponents, mobilize local militias to "restore law and order"
Or, I suppose, it could be incompetence that still knows how to recognize opportunity...
In my opinion, the tax cut that has been benefiting the economy is the move away from zero percent interest rates. Lending to banks at below inflation is like a tax that goes directly to them. But when we keep on raising short term rates above inflation, that's going to be like a tax too, and I expect we will promptly get whiplash since the Fed doesn't know when to stop.
Maybe I am becoming a crank, because I feel Cassandra-ish, like major macroeconomic problems are so simple but nobody gets it. Feel free to explain why I am totally wrong.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=ne...
Furthermore, to finance that tax cut, a lot of money is being borrowed. When government is out there shilling its bonds, this crowds out investment into corporate bonds and equity, depressing growth.
and so it goes.