(DigiNotar was trustworthy right up until people discovered that it had been compromised. StartComm actively hid that it had been bought by WoSign; it took people some digging to turn this up and verify it. Other CAs have routinely denied that they had problems when they did.)
Even if you could, picking an especially trustworthy CA doesn't add any extra security for your website, because you are actually dependent on the security of all of the CAs out there, any of which can in theory mis-issue a TLS certificate for your site. Sure, there's CAA records, but this only helps if the CA actually follows the rules properly; CAs can fail here at both a technical and a business level. (One CA recently proposed that it should be allowed to ignore CAA records if the domain owner told it to.)
Even attempting to do basic checking of a CA probably doesn't make sense at a business level unless you're buying certificates in bulk. Suppose that you're buying four TLS certificates and the best price you can get is $30 per certificate per year, or $120 in total for a year. How much engineer time does it make sense to spend in order to pick the most 'trustworthy' CA (ie one that is likely to remain trusted by browsers for a year), given that CA de-trusting is an extremely rare event and if it happens, you're only out another $120 to buy certificates from the next CA?
(I'm the author of the linked-to entry and as you can tell, I have opinions on CAs and the TLS ecosystem. One of them is that Certificate Transparency is a really big deal because it removes a lot of the 'trust me' from the whole CA ecosystem.)
I can generate a set of magic bits on my own computer without any input from a CA, and I'll be able to use them to encrypt a TLS session. What I can't generate on my computer is some trust, which is what I get when I buy a cert from a CA. Also, as a customer of CAs, I have a selection of different companies to choose from, and I base that selection mostly on trustworthiness. It's not so difficult for me to determine which CAs have had the least number of trust-undermining incidents.
To your point of likelihood around CAs being de-trusted, something that happens even less often (as fas as I'm aware), is relying parties claiming on the relying part warranty, so I don't think appealing to likelihood is an especially valid point here.
If advance warning is nonexistent, there's no point in even trying to check. If advance warning is hidden, you have a cost/benefit tradeoff to make, and I believe that in most cases (ie with low amounts of money involved), it's not good use of scarce and expensive engineer time to try to assess the state of a CA.
(This is especially the case if your company doesn't already have an engineer who is relatively expert in the CA ecosystem and knows where to even start looking. Without that expertise, would something like StartComm's quiet sale to WoSign have raised any alarms even if you discovered it?)
As far as magic bits go, the one thing that self-generated magic bits can't do is insure that a complete first time visitor can't be MITM'd by an active attacker. Whether this matters (or matters more than the scary browser warnings) depends on circumstances.
If we say that this CA is not 'trustworthy' here, what we really mean is 'this CA is not in browser root sets and so the TLS certificates it issues provoke browser warnings'. This is useful in one sense (it is what most people care about), but I prefer to be explicit about what we mean (partly because 'trust' is a loaded term with tangled implications).
But as a user of certificates, there is no levels of trust to compare, either the padlock is green or its not.
So I look only at price, and maybe more abstract things like customer service.