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Comment by sidm83 | Hacker News Reader

Not good. I've been tracking the prices in Mumbai which has the most expensive market with the least supply in India and prices have not moved since 2014. There is potential for drastic fall as per the unsold inventory which may take over 7 years to sell based on current sales numbers. The Delhi-NCR market has seen drops of 20-25% as its a much bigger market and developers do not have the financial muscle compared to the ones in Mumbai.

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> There is potential for drastic fall as per the unsold inventory which may take over 7 years

I have been hearing that for the last 7 years.

Depending on context, does the potential for an event go away when the event does not occur for a long time? Much of the time I'd say that that has no information value whatsoever, and sometimes it may actually signal worse to come. So by itself I would claim the piece of data that you mention, accepting it at face value, is meaningless.

Its not quite out in the open yet, but it is happening when you sit on the table and negotiate. A prime builder in the most prime location (BKC) is offering nearly 30% off on initial quote after a few rounds. There is humongous over supply in areas like Goregaon and Worli/Lower Parel. As per industry sources there is very little movement for properties north of INR50m which is essentially every apartment >=2br south from Bandra onwards. Builders like Oberoi have still not managed to sell flats which have been ready for 3-4 years in Goregaon, resulting in the recent 25% * 4 years scheme. It's a matter of time till they capitulate. Even otherwise, if they stay at old rates, they're effectively falling on account of inflation every year.

There is also a clear change in the sales pitch. 4 years ago the pitch was about "investing". Now its about "end use". Clear sign of ending of investor fueled bubble.

Thanks everybody, you saved me a lot of money. I had completely different information about the market.

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