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Comment by evmar | Hacker News Reader

Can anyone comment on the risks of posting such an essay while still living in China? Is this considered safely within the lines, a calculated risk, or something else?

(Or has he already left China before posting the essay?)

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To be fair, his blog was never exactly positive on China, and (as he states in the article) he was very wary of crossing the fine line between moderate criticism and falling afoul of the CCP.

Between the fact that he was forced out of his position, and that he says he's "grateful" not to have been detained, I imagine he feels safe enough to get a shot off as he leaves. I don't think the government would get rid of him with an ostensibly administrative dismissal, and then turn around and detain him on the back of this post, as he was about to leave the country for good; it would look heavy-handed.

Or, as you say, he could already be gone... I don't know.

I give him credit for even trying China. China is the opposite of libertarianism both culturally and politically. Even without the party, personal liberty and worth doesn't factor in much in China or anywhere where Confucianism took root. It's always in relations to others that you derive your worth. That aspect of my heritage has always sit poorly with me (then again I was raised in the US). I'm not saying one way is better than the other but for a libertarian to give it a try took some courage.

I would agree that China is probably the opposite of libertarian politically. Culturally, I would find it hard to agree. Most people don’t give a crap about others (in a liberating and selfish manner) unless it concerns them directly.

Oh that's a very interesting perspective. I didn't even think about that. Yes there is a sense of "mind your own business" in China and that may be a more recent development. What I was referring to is more along the lines of how you've valued and viewed by people you know -- one does not have inherent value simply because he is a human and therefore the idea of human rights and individual liberty/freedom are somewhat foreign concepts to China and perhaps East Asia.

Your question is if something will happen to him? Well, it apparently already did. That was it. He got forced out of his job, probably lost his social standing and is now leaving the country. After spending nine(?) years in China he is, in the eyes of the Chinese, trash talking China and glorifying the US to get back with his countrymen. It is all pretty much in line with how Chinese nationalist rhetoric says that "arrogant foreigners" behave. So it isn't really something that challenges China's narrative.

The way to think about censorship and risk in China is to consider reach. This article is in English, and hosted on what appears to be the authors own blog. The chance of it being spread to any significant number of people in the Mainland is negligible. Suffice to say, I think he’s pretty safe. In case it’s relevant, I’ve been in and around China since 2004.

His post seems very measured and I suspect he is small potatoes to anyone in power. Discouraging visiting educators would also be bad policy.

He is leaving so they probably aren't sweating it and he serves as an example to others about losing your job.

If anything, a parting shot like this might make his contract non-renewal seem even more justified to outside observers.

One data point: it was an explicitly stated rule of my Chinese student visa that I don't publicise any criticism of China.

Its not that bad, this man is still too small fry and his words have too small an impact on Chinese society. If you can imagine having a billion messages almost flying around couple seconds from the Chinese population all of which could contain obscenities, trolls, porn, memes critical of govt, and even criminal chatting then this little drop isnt really anything. I highly doubt anyone outside of Baldings' academic and blog circle even knows about Baldings' opinions.

The only risk is your blog getting blocked by the GFW, nothing else.

Hardly risky. Only if it gets notoriety. If he's already intent on leaving China there's little to worry about. The regime doesn't care about a libertarian's intellectual critique. If you want to get in trouble talk about the persecution and organ harvesting of the Falun Gong, scandals involving top CCP honchos or Taiwan-related issues.

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