Dealerships are a state protected scam. They collude on prices and with Kelly Blue Book, as well as wholesale auctioneers to keep prices high.
I think the same thing may be true with tech employers and their on-site benefits. Sure, the employees aren't eating out in town as much, but they are still eating. For the line cooks and other service workers, there's still work to be had. Its the people who are in the business of owning service industry businesses that are in trouble.
How much maintenance do electric vehicles (not hybrids) need? Probably less than 25% of that of IC vehicles.
Oops. There goes 75% of the service department. Which is probably a higher margin area than sales. They mark up the parts and then bill $150 per hour for labor and probably pay mechanics less than 25% of that rate.
If I owned a new car dealership I'd sell it within the next 5 years. Because EVs are coming.
If built to be good cars, not profitable cars. The cynic in me says that manufacturers will find some ways to raise the maintenance requirements of EV to maximum level they can still get away with. Such is the way markets work.
I think you're spot on with your cynicism. But maybe the market won't let them get away with it, if there's sufficient competition?
Here's my sad story of what you allude to, regarding a washing machine (or maybe it was a dryer I forget now):
An electric motor is fundamentally an incredibly reliable part. I'd venture that there are still some 100-year-old electric motors in daily service.
The "contactor" (fancy word for a high power relay) failed. This contactor controlled the electric motor which made the drum turn. Turns out that the field replaceable unit is not the contactor, but is an assembly that combines the motor and contactor. So instead of being able to replace just the relay (which can be prone to failure after some years of use), the entire assembly must be replaced. A perfectly good motor thrown away because the contacts on the relay controlling it went bad.
The replaceable unit cost $320 (this was a while ago) instead of perhaps $20 for the relay itself!
[1] "U.S. car dealerships [are] protected by state laws. Most state laws expressly prohibit manufacturers and distributors from operating retail outlets. They must by law sell their vehicles through independent franchise retail distribution network." https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/culture/commutin...
[2] Most recently: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17260911
Interesting. Not even Germany has such a law, I wonder whether that makes the US a car maker or rather a car seller country?