You and I are talking about completely different things. I don't care about numbers or prospective adoption of a private company's protocol and platform. I'm talking about what I can do now. What I'm already using it for. What's on the horizon. What's not going to happen. It's popular enough for my needs. It's funded. It's in active development.
No matter how popular your protocol gets, it's still your protocol. I have no interest in it. I can go back to Twitter if I want to have my social connections locked into someone else's platform.
I have been burned by enough companies that play up open source and development ecosystems, then close up when it's no longer convenient. Your own example of Twitter was built on developers making tools for it. Who makes apps for Twitter now but marketing companies? Virtually no one.