What I came up with is that a single occupancy (i.e. one person per car) cost will be less than $10/hour, which is competitive with public transport ($2.50 (subsidized) bus ticket in San Francisco, assume an average 15 min ride).
And it would drop significantly when sharing (2 to 4 people per car) or when deploying mini buses (they cost more to build and operate but can carry 12 to 16 people, like Chariot buses).
And in the longer term (10+ years) they'll be even cheaper thanks to mass production of cars, transitioning to electric cars, continuously improving reliability of cars based on analyzing what breaks most frequently, contracting own solar plants for cheapest charging etc.)
The obvious conclusion is that not only traditional taxis and uber and lyft are done but also buses because it makes no sense to subsidize them with hundreds of millions per year (for San Francisco) when private alternative is cheaper and better.
You can see my full reasoning at https://blog.kowalczyk.info/article/ac23f6cdd3b543b3b89d9f68... and https://blog.kowalczyk.info/article/e79db1cb2fcf4329ac37591b...