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The real trick is going to come from the new interaction models that are invented ... I'm not just talking about the generic point, touch, and gesture UX that we have today in the AR/VR space; I'm talking about entirely new categories of tasks and abilities that are simply not possible using the inputs of today. We're already starting to see some really innovative art being created by "physically" being in the space (as in Tilt Brush) ... I wonder when we'll start seeing more 3d content creation tools being VR-native. Or CAD tools where you can lay out changes to a structure in real time ... that one is especially interesting given that you can (in theory) make a real-time map of your environment using some of the "inside out" positioning sensors that are already on headsets today.

Total replacement won't come until things are completely seamless, but it's definitely happening. Especially in cars. It will just become completely seamless for you to ask your car to display directions from Google maps as an AR projection on all the vehicle windows. Once these headsets get down to a normal pair of glasses with full FOV, people will just wear them all day every day. At that point the lines between reality and virtual will blur and AR will be the default interaction.

On the timescale OP is talking about there is a decent chance users won’t have to move their hands/fingers at all.

https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/19/facebook-brain-interface/

AR would replace the display, not all input mechanisms.

What if I don't trust facebook with my brainstate? (Or google or literally any other company.)