I think that’s what many experienced Haskellers would say is the language’s best attribute for getting things done, that the type system makes it possible to refactor even a large program with the confidence that all the parts you replace will slot perfectly back into the original structure. Or that changing the core structure itself will result in a new structure that has all the right slots for all the various bits and pieces that need to slot into it. Having the confidence that you will be able to refactor painlessly, you should be less concerned with finding the perfect abstraction up front. Write code, make it work, then make it better.
And as others have mentioned, yes, the right abstraction and appropriate level of generality will become easier to recognize as you write more Haskell. Go with the first decent implementation you can come up with, and as you gain experience that first implementation will more and more often turn out to be a good one. In the meantime, run HLint and read more Haskell code, and you’ll quickly pick up most of the generalizations that really make sense to use in typical applications. The more experienced you get, the more confident you should become that significant time spent generalizing code to no real purpose is pointless and tends to result in code that both reads worse and runs worse than what you started with.