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Comment by barking | Hacker News Reader

Owned by Paddy Power. Not surprised they are welching on the bet, they make a great play on what good sports they are in their advertising but will ban you if you show signs of not being a complete mug.

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I worked for a betting company for a bit, and they actually liked people who were great at betting. They get flagged along with the sport/league they are good at, and the traders used these people to adjust their lines.

If someone bets and wins often on a specific sport/league, and they make a big bet for it that doesn't really make sense, maybe the line is wrong or that person knows something everyone else doesn't.

That's why I'm very suspicious of Paddy Power's ownership of betfair. They won't ban people there because their angle is as a broker working earning commission but they do potentially gain insider knowledge that they can then apply in their conventional business.

"Insider knowledge" isn't illegal and they couldn't care less what the outcome is. They make money by attracting customers who aren't sophisticated. If they want to know what the "right" price is, they just look at the Asian books (they don't employ people to help predict outcomes either).

maybe you're right but it being a well documented fact that they discourage successful punters to the extent of circulating photographs to betting shops makes me wonder. If someone is doing unusually well on their exchange why wouldn't they use that data, PP are extremely good at maximising every edge they have.

It looks to be usual practice across the industry in the UK: https://www.theguardian.com/global/2015/aug/02/betting-horse...

That article mentions Barney Curley, I'd recommend his book giving a little back. In it he documents a coup he pulled off against the bookies on a horse running at a small English course Cartmel in the 70s iirc. The key point was that there was just one telephone at the course. Most bets are settled at SP which is the on-course starting price. If the big chains are getting a lot of money on a horse they'll get their agents to put money on that horse at the course to bring the price down and reduce their liability. On that day Curley's people put a fortune of money on before they bookies realised there was something up. They hid it by betting in doubles where there's less scrutiny but then they pulled the other horses out of races which had the effect of converting those bets into singles. The routine would be for the on-course agent to phone head office to see what they had to do. On that day, Curley had a burly crony hogging the phonebox as he tried to keep up with the health of his aunt who'd been taken ill. No one was able to shift him until the race went off.

I just looked it up and I think I was confusing two different events. Curley's coup was at bellewstown in Ireland while he wasn't involved with the Cartmel one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_Sam_betting_coup

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gay_Future

That is the business model. How do you think they make money?If you want to bet in volume at better prices, use exchanges or an Asian book. But their business model is to spend a lot on marketing to attract unsophisticated customers and make it back on bad prices.

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