A Roadmap for the Upcoming U.S. Treasury Bull Market

An alternate view I've seen is to look at the last 30(+) years as a giant bull market in bonds that is slowly, finally, coming to a close[0][1]

[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/is-the-30...

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamsarhan/2016/11/16/is-the-30...

The crux of their argument is based around a trend line of yields, and correlating the approach of yields to that trend line with actual human behaviors.

I think this is flawed.

The only reason the trendline is sustained at this point is because feds rate went all the way to ZERO for almost 8 years. I don't think we have enough information to predict what the tolerable funds rate and treasury yields are. Assuming the 3% line is really going to spell doom and gloom for the market is reasonable, but not reasonable enough to extrapolate anything from it.

Yes, if we get enough recessio where lending dries up and stocks crash, people worldwide will still rush to put their money in US Treasuries, resulting in a bull market for US treasuries. The favorable aspects of treasuries - which are LIQUIDITY and geopolitical position - have not been eclipsed by any asset since the last time US treasuries had these advantages over any other asset class.

Any good resources on understanding and using treasuries to complete a portfolio? Without leverage they look so unappealing today but I know they’re important.

I saw a late night commercial the other day, it had Boone Pickens saying we should thank the Donald for our economy and watch out for the Millennial socialists who will bring it all down. It was almost a parody of itself.

This is dumb as rocks -- and probably written by someone trying to get out of a trade -- so buyer beware.

It is clear that the driver to higher rates are endless and large deficits in the dollar, which going to lead to printing more dollars. It will end when the deficit shrinks or the yield rises to cover the expected inflation from these deficits.