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It is bold of Stratechery to make a longterm bet against any face-based device. The press of the 90s and early 2000s was laden with writers claiming in essence that there won't be any smartphone revolution. They'd have ample of proof from a wide range of mobile hardware products that failed spectacularly -- from the Newton to the Palm Pilot.

Then we got the iPhone.

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I didn't read a long term bet against a face-based device. He focuses on facebook's value as an app-based stimulant, and how VR occupies a completely different (and possibly limited) niche. In fact, Stratechery claims that AR is more promising, and that Apple is well-poised to create a face-based device. His main point is: unless the face-based device joins us in our every day activities like the smartphone, it's not going to be directly useful to facebook.

unless the face-based device joins us in our every day activities like the smartphone, it's not going to be directly useful to facebook

Isn’t that obvious / circular reasoning? It’s basically saying “unless people start using VR a lot and it becomes more than a niche, it won’t help Facebook.”

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