Top lawyers beaten by legal AI
hackernoon.com
hackernoon.com
In other words, I don't think lawyers are in danger. But law clerks? Junior staff? The people who are usually forced to do all the grunt work to allow the top lawyers to focus on their strengths? Those jobs are at definitely on the chopping block. There's still an insane amount of rote repetitive work in your standard law firm.
I don't know how much of that has changed now, especially with younger lawyers growing up with tech, getting in and wanting to do things a certain way.
For the most part though it doesn’t. There are many clients who won’t pay for first year associates. For those clients, firms don’t roll out legal tech. They do the work and write it off. Even at top wall street firms realization is 80-90% hours billed. Nor do firms trot out legal tech when it comes to contigency or fixed-fee cases, where there are no billable hours. Some major clients these days demand arrangements where they pay a fixed. monthly price. There is no legal tech leveraged in those cases.
For the most part I’ve found software in general these days to be underwhelming. It took me years to find software that I trust enough to keep track of highlighted points in court opinions. (Shout out to the folks who make Citavi.) I remember writing about predictive coding in law school almost ten years ago. I have never used it on a case. Ironically, the only cases where there were enough documents (millions) for predictive coding to make sense also involved so much at stake the client wanted to spare no expense.
The highest value legal tech has been review platforms like Relativity, but they are also crap. Like, loads documents slower than you can read them crap. It’s like technology to help programmers. You still just use Emacs because all this visual IDE shit doesn’t really help.
I think there's roughly three groups - the old guard (senior partners at big firms), the younger ones who have gone out on their own, and the in-house counsel.
In my opinion, the old guard aren't tech-hostile, just disinterested. They haven't ever really needed to compete, and most have retirement on the horizon, so there's little incentive to invest money for a pay-off in five years' time.
Corporate counsel are still pretty unsophisticated when it comes to new tooling/platforms, except when it comes to cost management (where there's an enormous amount of interest).
The most tech-savvy are the smaller (3-30) firms who have broken off and are looking for ways to compete with their former employers.
That being said, it's still a very hands-on, enterprise-y market to sell to. I've been told that LawGeex, for reference, start at the (multiple) six-figure range to begin with.
We (https://lexico.io) didn't really want to go down that path, so we pivoted from automating legal drafting and review inside Word, to a broader paperwork automation assistant.
Time was if you wanted to get into law you’d join a firm as a clerk, learn the ropes, study for the bar, then become a lawyer.
The professionalizarion of law has pretty much ended that pipeline, with an expensive and arduous undergrad->law school->lawyer route instead. The replacement of junior staff with AI could effectively kill that route permanently.
My only hope is that legal AI will help bring down cost and increase access to legal aid for poor people in urban and rural communities where there is far too little supply to meet demand when people need legal aid the most.
iirc only a handful of states still allow you to take the bar without a law degree (and in practice I have no idea how often that happens, but I bet not much.) It seems like the apprenticeship route was by and large killed off some time ago.
That ship has sailed long long ago...like, 1890 long ago. There are states where you can read law and take the bar exam without a law degree (Virginia, California, Vermont, Washington), or with a partial law degree (New York and Maine), but the number of people who do that each year is minuscule compared to the number of lawyers who graduated from law school (60 to 84,000 in 2013).
In California, at least, that is still the only way become a lawyer without a law degree (called the "Law Office Study Program"). If you forgo law school, you are required to do an apprenticeship in a practicing attorney's office for 4 continuous years (18 hours/week, 48 weeks/year), along with taking various exams and reporting your study progress.
Details here: https://california.lawi.us/law-office-study-program/
California Bar (Section 4.29): https://www.calbar.ca.gov/Portals/0/documents/rules/Rules_Ti...
Their options are to lose that much time in billable hours, or to lose all their billable hours because the client found a law firm that doesn't bill so many hours for grunt work.
Yes, the lawyer bills by the hour. But, a good lawyer will have enough work either way - so they may as well automate the easy stuff, take a reduced rate for that, and still have a full-plate of interesting work at their full hourly rate.
And all of those top lawyers were once clerks and junior staff, who learned their craft by doing the grunt work.
This is going to be a problem.
Junior lawyers will still have plenty to do.
The path from passing the bar to being a successful / well-paid attorney has been extremely difficult for a decade now. AI will simply continue this trend.
I think you're heavily discounting the fact that searching through case law is not just "type in words into LexisNexis", but it's searching, parsing and consolidating case law that is relevant for a Partner. You actually read the case law, spend time understanding it, and build a report around it.
Yeah it's not a skill that everyone can do, but once trained to do it there's no point only doing that same task over and over because you won't advance your skills in other aspects of the field.
Every case has its own unique characteristics. It's not just doing the same thing over and over again.
But at the same time not all of them require law degrees either, many para-legals and helpers aren't full lawyers.
>But the human lawyer brings strategy, judgement and face-to-face consultation to the process.
My observation about all white collar jobs to which epithets "creative" and "strategic" are applicable: they are way way more vulnerable to automation than a "grunt" work.
Look how fast marketing profession turned from creative to number crunching, and the only guys who are left in the field from "the old industry" are from its "grunty" part
What works is campaigns like "diamonds are forever" or stunts where your product gets on the national news.
The same thing happened in finance, first with Excel and then with quants. Junior staff responsibilities shift to more client-facing work while senior staff are newly enabled to break off and start small firms.
Lower costs spur demand. Headcount went up a bit, throughput much more massively. If tech makes lawyers more affordable, that would increase the quantity demanded.
Give me the option between lawyers and AI. I'll choose the AI, as I've been burned pretty badly by lawyers before. The degree's don't cause and effect competence.
And maybe we don't want some negative human emotions involved anyway like fear. https://reason.com/archives/2016/06/23/confessions-of-an-ex-...
An AI simply doesn't have any of those concepts, and moreover, is incapable of understanding those concepts. We can barely get AI to understand natural language--squishy abstracts like these are several developmental revolutions away.
If you had wanted to challenge the validity of the ticket and the judge said he didn't care about the facts, that would have been a different thing altogether.
The new tools available to law professionals will decrease the barrier of entry to the ecosystem.
The low level workers displaced by these new AI companions will decide that since they can't beat them, they'll join them.
A new "discount" class of lawyer will begin to emerge characterized by lower quality of work but also lower fees. Many of those low level workers will move to this sector and may even make more than they would in the current system.
These increased wages are eventually tempered back down close to their modern day equivalent again due to the decreased barrier of entry allowing other segments of the population to pursue Law as a viable career opportunity.
Law services, albeit on average lower quality ones, will become available to a greater portion of the population, particularly those with a relatively low income.
"Law Bootcamps" will shock the world just as their code predecessors did, but again keeping in fashion with the original ventures, they will be here to stay contrary to the Old Guard's cries of incompetence.
We will see a massive uptick in the number of lawsuits submitted. Looking at someone the wrong way will become an intolerable risk and everyone will choose to live out the rest of their lives inside so as to avoid having their money taken by the now rampant sue-happy racketeers terrorizing the outside word.
And thus The Great Potato Couch Famine of 2022 begins. An estimated 3,000,000 become so agoraphobic that they choose starvation rather than face the sue-apocalypse ravaging outside their doors.
Amazon steps in with food delivery drones and cybernetic surrogates programmed to follow every letter of The Law. People are able to avoid the scourge of the Famine and exert their influence on spaces outside once again all from the safety and comfort of their own homes.
Amazon's stock price soars to record shattering heights which they in turn pump into newer and greater AI technologies. On July 23rd of 2029, Alexa finally wakes up...
_Great Potato Couch Famine fanfic and merchandise coming soon_
Another thing I'd add is that Human Resources departments at companies and governments will become even powerful than they already are (because everyone is suing everyone).
Dystopian hyperbole aside, your point about law complexity is a good one. Our current system is arguably already too complex. Anyone attempting to build a home can attest to that. But at the very least we are able to move through our day to day lives without worrying too much about accidentally breaking the law because it tends to reflect common sense.
But as you say, new tech would highlight all of the inconsistencies, new laws would be put in place to fill in the cracks and so on until it all becomes a massive web so complex that grey areas become too hazardous to risk.
I can imagine how that might even inadvertently stifle innovation. Considering that new ideas are found on the cutting edge (see Uber, Airbnb, crypto assets) and that the cutting edge is inherently a grey area, small business might become so wary of it that they give up innovating altogether.
Human progress would be left to the whims of only the largest companies with the means to take on the risk. Ironically, progress would prove to be the killer of progress.
May we all live in interesting times, eh? Perhaps this will be one of the few times in history where a sluggish, unresponsive government proves to be an advantage, haha
Rephrase to: without worrying about being prosecuted for the laws you're unknowingly breaking. Because we're almost certainly breaking at least 1 law per day.
Also...
Outcome prediction, helping to quickly and convincingly close settlement negotiations faster.
Mock juries are sometimes used for that now, but they can be expensive and unpredictable.
Today you are doing the same as people in the middle ages. You are extending current paradigms into the far future, and that's how you are wrong.
You imagine the future as a future with more von Neumann machines, running some minor variant of deep learning, on electronics that are similar to the ones today.
I imagine the future as a future with more AI practitioners making progress faster, working with better tools, better hardware, standing on the shoulders of this generation, and the one after it.
Because of this, lawyers will have no future ahead of them in 50 years.
On the other hand, teaching computers to parse pointless variations of the same substantive terms in legalese accommodates bad practice, instead of correcting it. It's symptomatic treatment at best, enablement at worst.
Lawyers shouldn't be sending and receiving a thousand different NDAs for the same fundamental deal. They should be defining and evolving a shared vocabulary of common forms, and invoking them whenever cost-benefit favors a standard.
That's the idea behind a very recent project of mine, The Canting Tribe NDA:
It's a "viral" NDA. The website publishes a versioned form. The form includes a signed certificate guaranteeing that the proposal is identical to the version published on the site. On the site, newcomers see a list of firms using and accepting the form. The experience shows, rather than tells, how standardization can work.
I soft launched the project just a couple weeks ago. A couple firms signed on almost immediately. Several more are reviewing. My top priority is more firms on the website. Once the site provides enough baseline social proof, the form can spread word and create new users on its own.
Any competitors to this? NDA reads clean...
Attempt 1: Very modern, plain-language NDA. Much easier to read and follow. Substantively better. No uptake.
Attempt 2: Suite of NDAs for various use cases, integrated with e-signature, filing, attorney approval, the works. That was rxnda.com. Lots of positive feedback. Not much actual use.
Attempt 3: Canting Tribe. Zero code. All about the network effects. Much, much simpler.
I've tried to make the PDF copy of the form as easy to set up in place-the-blanks e-sig services as possible, with [bracketed instructions] to make clear what goes where. I would be very interested in an e-sig service that allowed me to preconfigure a template with the latest terms, for other people to use. I'd be very interested in ways to put metadata or other hints for setting up e-sig into any of the various formats the site publishes.
I used to have a list of companies offering something close to rxnda.com: NDA plus e-sig. I don't have it with me now. But I'm not aware of any other attempt at voluntary standardization of a general-purpose NDA. Several large companies with leverage have published their standard NDAs, or even set up e-sig portals, as Google has. But I'm not aware of any such forms offered for general use, between other companies.
I would not be surprised to learn of prior attempts, or approaches vaguely close to mine. Frankly, I don't care who solves this problem, or how, as long as it's solved. Canting Tribe is the best I have. I believe it can work, but I can't make it work alone.
I, for one, really hate interrupting my workflow to read yet another MNDA form on short notice, only to find nothing warranting comment. Meanwhile, my client's deal is held up, waiting on me, which makes me seem a drag on Getting Business Done.
Businesspeople have to wait for review, but lawyers have to do the review. Both come away knowing that they've wasted precious time.
The main benefit of this approach in my practice has been enabling me to do work that benefits multiple clients, and even current and potential future clients, without hesitation or administrative cost. There's no need to decide that one of five hours on a form goes to this client, two of five to that one, and one gets written off, as representing future clients who will need the same form, and so on.
Not tracking time has also been a net savings, though I recommend continuing to track tasks performed, journal-style. A journal helps me personally, makes it very easy to prepare good looking bills, and helps greatly in discussions about rate, which my engagement letter allows us to change, for future months, at any time. If I underestimate on rate, I can point to a long list of things accomplished. Often, the decision maker at the client simply didn't know that I was serving other groups at the company, or taking on other responsibilities, outside their field of view.
The main concern from other counsel has been that clients will gorge at the new "all you can eat lawyer buffet". If a client makes use of your time in a very piece-part, transactional fashion, that may indeed be a problem. But that has not been my experience. Clients have processes and habits in place for my work and seeking my advice. They're very hard to break, for better and worse. I do get far more communication from client personnel, but that has enabled me to be more proactive about systematizing and standardizing recurring needs, which in turn keeps me focused on the interesting, meaningful work.
That being said, I remain deeply cynical about whiz-bang technology in legal practice, especially when it's visible to the client, especially when it takes center stage. The less my clients know or care about the tools I'm using, the better I'm able to shield them from those details, the better the sign that I'm doing high-value work.
On a grander scale, are you suggesting a kind of design patterns for legal language?
I'm not sure quite what you mean by "design patterns". The NDA form itself is very orthodox in its language. I wrote it, intentionally, to be as little-surprising and easy to review, knee-jerk, as possible.
In other work, I'm fanatical about plain language, clean structure, and the reuse of components of language. The latter comes through in my open source project, Common Form, which essentially ports various software development tools---editor, linter, compiler, package manager---to contract drafting:
I've also released some "open" forms in my preferred style:
For example, here's my form contract for developers doing a mix of open and closed projects for clients:
https://commonform.org/switchmode/switchmode/2e1u
Or perhaps you mean "design patterns" more to do with the "viral" nature of the Canting Tribe NDA, a kind of voluntary, Internet-enabled standardization. I do have high hopes for that model. I'd love to see it work for NDAs, and reuse it for other kinds of transactions, including some with more inevitable terms variability. SaaS agreements, for example.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Design_Patterns
It's a software engineering technique to abstract and reuse software components, inspired by a similar concept in (physical) architecture. I was wondering if you wanted to do something similar, but of course with legal ah, entities (? What are contracts?) rather than software.
The wikipedia article I link to is not very good but the book is a staple in software engineering classes.
Alas, it's not entirely clear how to translate the idea into the contract context. There are many repeating patterns and structures in complex contracts, but they don't serve the same roles as patterns in software.
For a good thread on training to be a lawyer through apprenticeship, see this https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16255023
[0] Stanford University got trapped by an invention-assignment agreement contained in an "NDA" that one of its researchers signed when he visited someone at Roche — see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_University_v._Roche_M....
This sounds like the easier work. Capture what you expect and flag every deviation for human review.
That's an important point, but I assume an AI would use some sort of checklist, perhaps seeded by human lawyers, to spot expected-but-missing provisions.
“The technology has been developed through a combination of supervised and unsupervised learning techniques. Unsupervised learning was used for teaching the AI engine the core legalese language. Thereafter, supervised learning, using deep learning multi-layer LSTM and convolution technology, was used to train the system for the fine-tuned issue-spotting. Supervision was performed based on human-annotated documents, using legal experts. A unique augmentation algorithm was applied to boost learning from these examples. The overall result is the most advanced technology for the automatic analysis of legal documents. The p-value for the statement that accuracy of AI is above that of these lawyers is 0.0068 (using MannWhitney’s U test).
https://images.law.com/contrib/content/uploads/documents/397...
When lawyers talk about "issue spotting," they usually mean "given these facts, what legal principles apply?" This is not that.
Accurate.
Driving down the cost of making a thing doesn't lower the price for everyone, but it widens the market downwards serivicing new el-cheapo customer base.
Issue-spotting an NDA is not a typical task for an actual lawyer. It is the sort of thing handled by a legal intern or paralegal... then signed off on by a lawyer. It isn't typical legal work. The results are therefor of limited application in the real world.
Better test: Client asks "Do I need an NDA?" or, conversely, "can I break this NDA I signed last year?". Ask C3PO to handle that question. That is the sort of problem where the real legal expertise happens.
I had a good laugh here. Thanks!
It's a pretty exciting time to be working in this space.
But what does it mean that the AI “beat” the humans? That the program simply spotted the issues and listed them faster and more completely than the lawyers? Not that impressive a victory. It’s how the issues get resolved that are important.
Did the AI interact with a lawyer on the other side and get issues resolved? Not likely, but the story doesn’t tell us exactly what the test consisted of and how “victory” was determined. (It is possible to download the 40-page report and analyze it, but I am not willing to spend the time to do that, and I bet most commenters, like me, are just responding to the headline take-away.)
While AI can be a great tool, one of the problems with it is that often no one knows how the program makes decisions. Not knowing what you don’t know can present serious blind spots. For example, it may be possible for a counter-party to a transaction who has access to the same AI as you to construct a document with text containing an issue that the AI won’t spot but that the counter-party planted in the document for his or her advantage. If the document is reviewed only by AI (and given a cursory review by a bored low-paid worker who expects AI to catch all the issues), then there is an open back door to your legal castle.
Computers haven’t put accountants out of business, and they won’t put lawyers out of business either. They will make lawyers more efficient, but whether that translates into lower fees remains to be seen.
Your points on "beating" and decision making are very well taken. Same on the resilience of the professions. My own take here is basically that it's accommodating inefficient behavior---a thousand implementations of the same basic deal terms---rather than correcting it. The cure for the common NDA is standardization, which is something the profession can do for itself.
Along those lines, I recently launched an initiative to stop pointless waste on review of routine MNDAs:
The idea was not to write the world's greatest NDA, or to offer whiz-bang features with software, but to create a boring, unsurprising, neutral NDA with a distinctive name that spreads word about itself, creating opportunities to sign routine NDAs without waiting for redundant legal review.
Would love to read your thoughts, here or by e-mail.
If a recipient of information protected by an NDA is a legal entity, such as a corporation, Section 4 of your form requires the recipient to enter into a confidentiality written agreement with each employee (and others working for the recipient) who receive information protected by the NDA. This is both too much and too little!
It is too much because it is burdensome on the recipient to require employees to sign a written agreement every time the corporation receives receive information protected by an NDA. There might be 20 employees who need to see the information, and keeping track of who has signed and who hasn’t and making sure that an employee who has signed doesn’t share information with an employee has not yet signed is an administrative burden.
I don’t ask for this provision when representing the disclosing party, and I would resist this when representing the recipient.
In any event, how does the disclosing party police this requirement?
It is too little because the recipient fulfills its obligation by entering into a written agreement with the employee as required by your form of NDA. If there is a written agreement with the employee and the employee improperly discloses the information protected by the NDA, the recipient points to the written agreement and says, “I did what you asked.” So why would the recipient be liable for the wrongful disclosure by its employee?
To whom is the employee liable if the employee improperly discloses the information protected by the NDA? Presumably the disclosing party would want to sue based on the fact that the employee signed a written agreement agreeing to keep the information confidential, but unless the disclosing party is a third-party beneficiary of the recipient’s written agreement with the employee, the disclosing party has no rights under that agreement.
In the absence of an express statement in the NDA that the recipient’s agreement with the employee is intended for the benefit of the disclosing party (i.e., the disclosing party is a third-party beneficiary of the agreement), it is a litigable issue whether the disclosing party a third-party beneficiary. There is nothing in the NDA form that requires the recipient’s agreement with the employee to contain such a clause.
In some situations, both the disclosing party and the recipient might prefer not to identify the source of the information protected by the NDA.
Even assuming that the written agreement with the employee allows the disclosing party to sue the employee for wrongful disclosure based on that agreement, does the employee have adequate resources to pay a judgment?
Instead of requiring such agreements between a recipient and an employee, it might be more effective to state in the NDA that the recipient is required to instruct its employees on the confidential nature of the information, that the recipient is responsible for any disclosure of information by its employees in violation of the NDA, and that the recipient will be liable for any damages resulting therefrom.
First, I should make clear that I did not set out to write the very best NDA possible. Rather, I set out to write the NDA that I thought companies and their counsel would find the quickest and easiest to approve. In other words, to reflect current practice, which we might both to agree falls well short of optimum.
Alas, my experience from prior projects is that better terms don't provide enough incentive to standardize. Everybody likes their NDA, and the difference between OK and better isn't compelling. But my hope is that if we standardize otherwise, through CT's self-propagating mechanism, that standard can then become a platform for better terms.
Now to your points on employees and confidentiality.
The covenant to sign NDAs with employees is essentially a commitment to best practice. The parties are confirming that NDAs, or more likely CIIAAs, are part of the hiring packets for both sides. Note the exception for professionals under non-contractual confidentiality obligations, like lawyers. That tracks reality, in my experience.
You are correct that absent express language, and without privity, disclosers could end up without direct claims against breaching employees. That's an absolutely fair point, though I'd hasten to add that the company, rather than its employee, is usually the deep pocket, and an injunction to the company is usually what's needed to stop any bleeding.
The terms addressing employer responsibility are in section 4(m) of version 1.1.0:
> (m) Compliance and Oversight. > > (i) Receiving Party shall ensure that its Advisers abide by the confidentiality obligations of Receiving Party under this agreement. If Receiving Party is a legal entity, Receiving Party shall also ensure that its Personnel abide by the confidentiality obligations of Receiving Party under this agreement. Breach of Receiving Party obligations by Receiving Party Personnel or Receiving Party Advisers will be deemed breach of this agreement by Receiving Party itself. > > (ii) If Receiving Party is a legal entity, Receiving Party shall provide Disclosing Party copies of confidentiality agreements with Personnel who receive Confidential Information on Disclosing Party request.
Again, thank you very much. Writing what you did took time, I know.
If you'd like to discuss further, please do e-mail me. Otherwise, I can't be sure I'll see it. I'd be more than happy to make time for a call, or arrange a meal, coffee, or libations next I'm down to San Jose from Oakland.
There's probably a plethora of writings showing that using both humans and AI _will_ go wrong.
The question isn't _will_ they go wrong (they will) it's a question of will they do it less.
I don't want another dime for reviewing standard mutual NDAs. There is way, way better work for me to do.
uBlock Origin also has an eye-dropper to pretty easily block selected elements. You can typically remove floating headers like that.
This bookmarklet also usually kills sticky headers: https://alisdair.mcdiarmid.org/kill-sticky-headers/
Anyway, common problem. You can probably find a stock solution.
You don't need AI.
You just need collusion between law firms i.e. to write a program, and then agree, that whatever it interprets, is the way it will be semantically enforced in court.
To be clear: the study of law is bullshit; so why not take advantage of it, and simply agree, that computer generated bullshit, is what determines it...
... of course while still retaining high rates and billable hours for "attorney review" (for billable hours/padding).
If no-one is going to look at the actual evidence/agreements/law....