Comment by dominicr | Hacker News Reader

Comment by dominicr | Hacker News Reader

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Disruptions normally result from a newcomer finding a new way to do things that legacy companies can't keep up with or compete with. A problem for Tesla is that many of the big car makers are joining in on the "disruption" and doing so very well, making it more of an industry evolution than disruption.

Another problem for Tesla is having only 5 quarters of positive cashflow out of 35. A single quarter hints at a turn around but there needs to be several positive quarters in a row to prove that it's not just an accounting trick (e.g. by counting more income in the quarter and delaying payments & write downs).

Don't get me wrong, I'm not anti-Tesla, but living in Oslo I see a lot of electric cars and Teslas are no longer the majority. Plus the Tesla repair workshop near me is always full, which isn't a great sign!

What are the other EV’s you’re seeing?

You can spot electric vehicles here as they have different license plate prefixes, so easy to get a view of what's electric without knowing the models.

That I can recognise I see a LOT of Nissan Leafs and good number of Hyundai Ioniq, Kia Soul, VW e-Golf, BMW i3 and for businesses the Nissan e-NV200 and Renault Kangoo vans. There are other models out there, Oslo being a good market for electrics.

It's common here for people who were early to order a popular electirc car (like the Ioniq or Opel Ampere) to be able to sell it as 'used' for more than you can buy one new from the dealership that you have to wait months for.

In my very expensive part of LA, I see a number of Hyundai Ioniq, a lot of BMW i3s, even a number of Jaguar i-PACEs, but one or two Tesla Model 3. There used to be more Teslas in the neighborhood when they had no competition from other automakers but a lot of the local owners (including several good friends) jumped to other automakers as soon as they could.

This is why I've been extremely bearish on Tesla in my HN posts. I've seen firsthand their place in their target market suffer as the competition heats up.

Moreover, visiting friends back in the Midwest (Chicago and Cleveland)--they're almost all BMWs, Nissans, and Chevys. A few guys have the high-end Tesla Model 3s to show off at events, but they use their i3s for daily commuting.

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