I didn't realize the CFTC has effectively banned prediction markets. Does anyone know the background to this?
Prediction markets are not complicated to conceptualize or create. The reason there is interest in the crypto space is because you cannot shut off a smart contract. If a truly decentralized prediction market is invented and works well, there will be no one to prosecute except its users. The government has outlawed prediction markets because it might incentivize criminal activity, like insider trading or assassination, but I believe these fears are incorrect. A robust prediction market could be a very useful indicator.