Well, I don't think it's speculative to say that a recession is coming. Predicting exactly when is hard, but isn't it a near virtual certainty that it will happen?
That's enough for me.
Can I make the bet you describe for, say, seven years? I’d say five is highly likely to suffice but I’d rather play it safe.
Yep. Hence "if few is three" earlier.
I'm not interested in a bet. I'm interested in adjusting my priors. Thanks for the help.
If you’re not interested in a bet, why did you reply to me to ask if I’ve made one?