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It's always going to take a few years.

The global fleet is about 2 billion passenger and commercial vehicles, and the global yearly production is about 100 million. So even if all new cars sold from now are electric, it will take 20 years.

But who knows what kind of autonomous vehicles and other innovations we'll have in 20 years. Buckle up :)

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A change like the transition to EV won't be linear. As more ICEs get replaced by EVs, people and businesses will realize that it doesn't make sens to sustain an aging ICE infrastructure for a shrinking fleet of old, toxic cars. Dense cities will gradually ban them, gas stations and car dealerships will close, banks will stop financing ICE leases (and more important, they will stop financing the entire fossil fuel industry), etc.

As the resale value of ICEs will plummet and their cost of ownership/operation will increase, a vicious circle will accelerate to quickly make them a liability.

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