I find the arguments about "expectation" compelling, but isn't that fundamentally different from thinking/not thinking? Also, aren't we making a mistake by looking only at the upper end of the tail where high achievers achieve less due to self-doubt/risk aversion? Isn't the reverse true in many (if not most) situations, where risky behavior is mostly harmful?

I have one other qualm:

>But baseball players do so by instinctively following simple rules: run in the right general direction, and adjust your speed to keep a constant angle between eye and ball.

Humans definitely do calculate "complex" differential equations to estimate the trajectory of a ball. If not, they literally wouldn't know which direction the ball is traveling in, as you'd only have the position of the ball on the eye's optic plane. Just because processes are subconscious or effortless doesn't mean they aren't happening.