Would be cool if there was a simple toy example demonstrating a situation where these differ. Perhaps it even differs for the example in OP.
Would be cool if there was a simple toy example demonstrating a situation where these differ. Perhaps it even differs for the example in OP.
Imagine you get the expected result of one win and one loss and had staked 5%: you'll end up with 1.055×0.95=1.002 wealth. If you had picked a 50% stake, you'd be sitting at 1.55×0.5=0.775 wealth instead, since the loss more than erases your winnings.
The unstated contrast is to models where e.g. there are only a limited number of investment opportunities, losses aren't total, or there are capital infusions.
If I was to make one gamble per day and wanted to maximise my profit after 50 years, I don't know if I'd use the Kelly criterion. I need to think about it.
Sorry for the late reply (don't know if you'll see this!) but I happened to be thinking about this again and the question popped into my head: what if I wanted to maximise a specific percentile (e.g. the 5th percentile) of my total winnings?
It's the expected growth rate, so yes it would vary in a real-world instance. I wondered for a while why they've taken the logarithm, but I think it's just because growth models are normally defined exponentially (with the rate being a parameter inside the exponential) - it shouldn't make a difference to the result.
As for varying, that Samuelson article says:
> For N as large as one likes, your growth rate can well (and at times must) turn out to be less than mine - and turn out so much less that my tastes for risk will force me to shun your mode of play.