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Comment by mrtron | Hacker News Reader

You are crazy if you think there is a middle class of 300+ million in China right now. 1/3 of their population is not buying houses and cars. There is nowhere near 300 million cars in China to begin with.

I have been there - and haven't seen anyone buying cars, designer clothes and apartments except expats and a few rich locals kids. Beijing is putting 1000 new cars on streets that are already in gridlock.

One party rule sounds like it could accomplish a lot in 'the best long term interest of many'. I am not sure there is evidence of this working. They have completely rebuilt entire cities like Beijing and Shanghai - but at the cost of other regions. Have they put a modern hospital in every region of the country?

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So by your one trip there probably some years ago, you have an all knowingness about their economy?

It is acknowledged that somewhere around 25% of the population is now middle class.

"A McKinsey report, Preparing for China’s Urban Billion, predicts that China’s urban population will expand from 604 million in 2008 to 926 million in 2025, and hit the one billion mark (out of a total population of 1.5 billion) by 2030. By 2025, China’s urban economy will generate over 90 percent of its GDP, over 200 of China’s cities will have more than one million residents, and approximately 70 percent of its urban population will be middle class."

and

"While China's middle class right now consists of only a quarter of the population, they are set to grow to nearly half the total population by 2020, according to Euromonitor. That means that 700 million out of the estimated 1.45 billion people of 2020 will have an income of roughly between 80,000RMB (11,800USD) to 120,000RMB (17,700USD) a year."

I don't claim to know all of their economy, I am just stating what I know. Additionally it was months ago, not years ago.

Reports estimating numbers in 2025 also doesn't represent what is going on there now.

Additionally 12k-17k per year isn't enough to afford much in their urban areas. They wouldn't be able to afford to go out for coffee and meals regularly let alone own an apartment in the city or a car.

- "While China's middle class RIGHT NOW consists of only a quarter of the population" - most chinese don't drink coffee, they drink tea and they make it at home - you can go out for a local meal for two people at a local restaurant for under $5, including food and beer - rent for a small local apartment is RMB 1500 ($200) / month

$15,000 USD goes a LONG way with living costs like this.

Are you intentionally being deceptive about this subject?

Your original claim was "Middle class. Have you been there to see the 300+ million people that are now buying apartments, cars, make up, creams, designer clothes et al.?"

Now we are talking about far less than 300 million making 15k per year and scraping by renting a small apartment and unable to go buy coffee regularly, let alone cars/housing.

> It is acknowledged that somewhere around 25% of the population is now middle class.

What definition of "middle class" are we using?

Poor people in the US have big screen TVs and a car (or two). (In fact, rich people are more likely to not have a TV - it's a status thing.)

Here's a test - do "middle class" Chinese want to come to the US and start out poor?

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