Ask HN: Still Any Tesla Doubters? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Still Any Tesla Doubters?

I sometimes casually count the Model 3's I pass on my 40 minute morning commute. Three months ago, I'd see 6-10. Today, 25.

No, they were not on transport trucks, nor broken down at the side of the road, nor leaving a trail of parts falling off.

Yes, this is in Silicon Valley.

For sure, much hard work ahead, but it seems to me that Tesla has broken through to become a viable auto manufacturer.

Are we convinced?

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I'm still a skeptic, so you have found at least one. Still think Tesla will go out of business in next couple of years. Their financials will deteriorate going forward in my view and they will run out of cash (even after their last successful quarter they are months away from empty bank account, so any glitch or drop in sales will get them closer to that point, Musk revealed during recent interview they were weeks from insolvency just months ago, which means even though their position is better now their runway couldn't have increased too much which is why I put it at few months).

It will also be probably difficult to raise more capital as the markets are entering a rolling bear market right now (I believe the Uber IPO early next year might be what finally breaks the market's back completely and we will see a big rout, not just correction like we have seen during last couple of months).

I don't own a Tesla. But, I'm certainly a potential buyer. And I'm worried about a lot of things.

There have been a number of complaints from the Tesla-owning Interwebs about various process failures: leasing, repairs, maintenance, inventory, etc. Marco Arment has a few good tweets about Tesla along with a bunch of similar stories from other Tesla owners hanging off those tweets.

I like Elon a lot, but I'm not confident at his ability to be an effective CEO for Tesla at this phase of their existence. Now that the company has broke through and changed the world, they need someone who can effectively lead the company through more boring stuff, like business process and effective customer care. I feel like Elon is more an ideas guy, and not the guy to be leading Tesla post-breakthrough. I feel like the boring stuff bores him.

1. https://twitter.com/marcoarment

By “Tesla Doubters” do you only mean people who don’t believe it’s a viable auto manufacturer? It seems pretty clear that it’s a viable auto manufacturer -- as in it manufactures and sells a significant number of vehicles. But I think many reasonable people have serious doubts/concerns about some of the issues with the vehicles themselves and leadership and future of the company.

indeed.

I buy cars for longevity. I expect them to be able to last me at least 10 years if not 15.

Tesla doesn't have that track record yet. And is there anywhere to get them serviced other than dedicated dealers? It's a lot of money to potentially be lighting on fire when other fine, reliable vehicles are available.

And, yeah, Musk concerns me since he seems like he is Tesla. If he takes down the company...

I see no upside to a Tesla other than the cache of 'I own a Tesla'

The Model S is now over 6 years old so we still have a few years to hit your time benchmark.

My bigger concern is that Tesla's manufacturing has been repeating the mistakes of the American auto industry from the 1970s which nearly doomed them. Poor quality control, high rates of rework from defects discovered at the end of production. This keeps the per vehicle cost too high to be sustainable against more effective competition.

These are, at this point, well-understood principles of project/production management that they just don't seem to understand. I'm invested in them (already sold off a chunk of my stake), and I don't plan to sell the remainder any time soon. But I have only middling confidence in them over the next several years. They have to learn how to run a Lean production environment if they really want to take over. Otherwise, Toyota or Honda or someone else will flip a factory to all-electric production one day and wreck Tesla.

Was skeptical at $250, even more skeptical now at $360. It's priced like a technology company in a business that's anything but. I find the concept of them being an automotive Apple interesting, but think it's easier to sell an overpriced $1000 item than a $30,000+ one.

It's hard to comment on all the bizarre and sensational stuff but it certainly doesn't make it any better.

Disclaimer: I'm not into cars, know nothing about cars, and I'll profit from a drop in the stock price.

Let see how they can survive first recall. Like VW diesel scandal, Toyota breaks and Ford Failure to Park.

Even if they are somehow successful, valuation is just not realistic. I also do not get why everyone is so excited. Tesla is just a small car manufacturer that sold few premium cars with a heavy subsidy of US.

Remember that Tesla cars are still very expensive and more or less luxury vehicles. Once BMW, Porsche and Audi enter the EV market to compete, who would still buy a Tesla?

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