However, FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 30% chance of winning, and in the days before the election was stressing the fact that a Trump win was very possible.
They didn't predict his win, but they did better than anyone else in the mainstream.
They didn't predict his win, but they did better than anyone else in the mainstream.
Kind of proving my point, as it shows that Nate Silver was the best at crystal-balling the election result. Afaik 30% is still bellow the 50% (or 0.5/1) threshold generally needed to make a decision, as the article also mentions.