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Comment by ramblerman | Hacker News Reader

The neat little graph showing the rise in global yearly investments up to 2040 is amusing. Nassim Taleb has made me very wary of these things.

what's even the calculation behind a projection like that, it even has a little spike in 2035!

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Well 2035 was the year they discovered the catalyst that made the reaction hold for months instead of hours. It took years to commercialize though.

Haha what reference is this? I have such an odd feeling I’ve heard this in dystopian sci fi

Hah I made it up! I do a bit of sci if writing though.

http://tlalexander.com/sanctuary/

Take it with a grain of salt.

but... molten salt has no grains

Reading the article beyond the neat little graph tells you of California's plans. Governments and companies make long term investments in their own structure over multiple years. This is also the basis of the bond market.

The graph is projecting global yearly investments not just California. And even if it was just California I would be doubtful of a projection 20 years into the future.

I'm guessing it's because the scheduled restrictions on sales and use of ICE vehicles will really kick in around that time. So there will be a corresponding higher demand on the electric grid caused by a growing fleet of electric vehicles.

But obviously it's somewhat speculative.

somewhat? it's _completely_ speculative!

Don’t phaseout dates set in the future create a spike in demand near the deadline?

Either people will be bored of ICEs for other reasons long before and make this a non event. Or, everyone will try to buy a new ICE in the year or two before they stop selling them. Automakers will use this as a justification for trying to move the deadline out. If that happens then the spike in electric drive will come at the next tradein time, not the deadline.

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