In fact, expect continuous price drops from Tesla as it struggles to drum up enthusiasm
The Model 3 is selling well, and ONLY in the US. Even if they hit peak demand they can just start selling to Europe and China (planned for later this year) and they’ll have plenty of new customers.
US is the richest and most car friendly nation of the world. There aren't many countries in the world who can afford a $50,000 car especially when there are poor charging infrastructure.
Regarding charging infrastructure, have you seen this map lately?
https://www.tesla.com/findus?v=2&bounds=76.18385340904877%2C...
If you don't have the ability to charge at home (condo or apartment), the idea of waiting at some energy pump for 30 minutes every morning is the opposite of alluring.
I've seen plenty of $35k+ cars in ghetto apartment housing. People seem to look at the monthly payment instead of the total cost of the car can never seem to get enough saved to buy a house.
I don't know which is the main buyer of higher end cars, but they shouldn't completely discount people who prefer to buy cars than save for houses.
As I stated, you will have trouble charging at a condo. In the bay area, most new development is condos, and I don't think buying one means you're bad with money.
That aside, one has to also consider the limited number of stores that Tesla has at this point in time. As they increases the number of stores their market reach will increase. Combine this with new global markets and it is clear that they will do fine for at least the next couple years.
Tesla is already positioned ahead of other auto makers with the construction of the Gigafactory 3 along with a deal with the Shanghai government to build a wholly-owned local factory (a notable exception).
The context was the barrier to entry in China. That was already implied? No other foreign auto maker was able to cut the same deal as Tesla in China.
>Toyota is firing up battery supply in Thailand.
Toyota/Lexus have zero plans for electrification in the near future. In fact, they have instead doubled down on Hydrogen with the Mirai.
http://www.thedrive.com/news/22429/toyota-to-double-down-on-...
https://corporatenews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+d...
>Not to mention that Panasonic and Chinese suppliers are the real source of Tesla batteries.
Not really sure what point you're trying to make here. Tesla is probably the only automaker (outside of china) that builds their own cells and battery packs in-house.
The point about Panasonic is pretty self-evident: Tesla isn’t going to win Asian markets if its upstream suppliers are all in Asia. They’re effectively a middleman and they’re paying for the right to be in-country. It’s not hard to see them being squeezed out by local firms.
To what extent would they have to invest in charger networks there, though?
Big takeaway here is they are very profitable producing at current rates. As they bring out new models they will continue to grow at 30-50% per year.
You don't know that. They had one big, profitable, immaculate quarter in Q3 by pulling all demand forward and using every accounting trick in the book to show profit. There is no guarantee there will be another quarter like that. In fact, if Tesla's earnings history shows anything, it's that losses will be even bigger than before.
Going forward, a) Weakened Global Economy b) Everyone who is passionate about owning Tesla has bought one.
Sustainable demand and profit will be clearer in 2019 Q2 and forward.
I can make a public bet that it wouldn't be greater than $150 Million per quarter
Tesla's marketcap should be at the most 100x Q2 profit. TSLA is definitely over-priced