Ask HN: How Do You Pick a Job?

When picking between jobs I typically have access to access to only some of the information - commute time, compensation, benefits, title, maybe a tiny peek into culture.

However, other things that matter hugely, such as "How good at managing is my manager?", "Will I feel connected to my coworkers?", "Will I find the work challenging and interesting?" or "Can I move my career forward here?" are almost impossible to get honest answers to, and often vary greatly between different teams within an organization.

How do you reduce uncertainty when it comes to those questions, and, if you accept a lot of uncertainty, how do you confidently pick a new job as an improvement in the face of it?