Hacker News Reader

Comment by andyonthewings | Hacker News Reader

We have the same trend in Hong Kong, where it was estimated in 2014 to cost $700,000 (USD) to raise a kid [1].

I've several married friends (all Hong Kong locals) chose to have pets over kids, and that's also my preference - except I don't want to have pets either.

By the way, there are 150 mainland Chinese migrating to Hong Kong, daily [2]. That means "original" Hong Kongers will be rare eventually.

[1]: https://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/09/04/want-to-raise...

[2]: https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/08/15/41000-one-way-permit-h...

View on HN

> By the way, there are 150 mainland Chinese migrating to Hong Kong, daily [2]. That means "original" Hong Kongers will be rare eventually.

There are over 7 million people in Hong Kong. I think it's going to take a while for Mainland Chinese to swamp out "original" Hong Kongers at that rate...

The 150 new migrants are also giving birth of babies, unlike the "original" Hong Kongers who prefer otherwise. So the process is a bit faster than you think, but of course it will take a while.

Those children born and raised in Honkong today will be original Hong Kongers eventually.

This really sounds a lot like the alarmist propaganda spread about migrants in other countries.

Alarmist propaganda that happens to be true.

"Moreover, three of four children in the city under the age of six had immigrant backgrounds.": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frankfurt#Immigration

"Even if all migration into Europe were to immediately and permanently stop – a “zero migration” scenario – the Muslim population of Europe still would be expected to rise from the current level of 4.9% to 7.4% by the year 2050." : http://www.pewforum.org/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-po...

It's true. Feel like the Umbrella Revolution was the tipping point. 2040 is only 2 decades away.

My takeaway is that its a good time to launch a pet business in Hong Kong.

And a bad time to bet on Hong Kong's long term future.

Why?

Reproducing your population is the lowest bar and requirement for a society to have a future.

I am not convinced that biological-continuation is fundamental to a society's sustenance. As long as people are willing to move into HK or any other place, it will remain a hustling and bustling city, at least for the economic purposes.

Those figures are definitely out of date - a quick back of the envelope calculation gives me over HK$1.5m for ESF P1-P13 schooling.

https://www.esf.edu.hk/school-fees/ - and it only goes up from there for the international schools.

Public schools are free in HK. Going to a private/international school (like ESF) in any other developed country would cost you as much if not more.

Also, America. At least in cities. I know a load of married couples with pampered dogs who hate kids.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com