The Miracle of Applied Mathematics (2001) [pdf]
colyvan.com
colyvan.com
As it turns out, the calculus has a good correspondence with the idea of dynamical systems. No surprise that it was invented together with modern physics and to serve modern physics.
I suppose someone who's writes a paper about mathematics anticipating physics would not be a formalist, but to say formalism is not credible is a bridge too far. As far as I know, Hilbert formalism[0] is the only credible philosophy of mathematics. Hilbert's approach to axiomatic systems led to Gödel's work and ZFC; on the contrary, rigorous attempts by non-formalist to assign meaning to logic and mathematics have largely collapsed after (for example) being unable to define numbers in terms of logic[2] (Frege) or to be consistent with its own principles[3] (Russel). And non-rigorous attempts, such as those described in this paper, have never then gone further than handwaving and saying "isn't it amazing? Don't you think it's unlikely?" which is nothing more than the fallacious "argument from incredulity."[4]
In a sense formalism is the Cartesian skepticism of the philosophy of mathematics: a secure position to which you can always return if pressed, and from which one sally's forth only a great risk.
My current understanding of the philosophy of science is that we have Popper's Falsificationism[5] on the one hand, mathematical formalism on the other, and a gap in the middle with a warning label stuck on it that says "Use mathematics to describe your models at your own risk! Management assumes no liability!"
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formalism_(philosophy_of_mathe...
[1]: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/frege-hilbert/
[2]: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/frege-theorem/
[3]: https://www.reddit.com/r/philosophy/comments/10iy83/why_did_...
[1] https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/nominalism-mathematics/#M...
Concerning "The problem is epistemic: why is mathematics, which is developed primarily with aesthetic considerations in mind, so crucial in both the discovery and the statement of our best physical theories?"
Abandoning the primary goal of "aesthetic considerations" would undoubtedly lead to such math becoming unusable, or even degenerating into non-math.
Therefore, I believe that in everybody's best interest math should stick to its own goal of exploring mere aesthetics.
Except that has rarely been the case: mathematical theories are most often developed in the view of applications within mathematics itself.
And they depend on shitloads of regular algebra and arithmetic to create and program them.
In fact, Quantum Physics is a huge user of math.