SN believes that China can somehow end up like South Korea or Taiwan in terms of prosperity. But there are many factors why it cannot. 1.) authoritarian government skimming most of the profits and giving them to inefficient state owned operations. 2.) population is too large and most are uneducated. 3.) China will be old before it becomes rich. 4.) the culture of stealing and copying prevent it from developing a healthy middle class 5.) China have incurred debts too massive, and choose to invest in poor investment. 6.) it had angered its investors, namely japan, South Korea, Taiwan, US, Europe, with many of its belligerent actions 7.) it has angered many other developing countries. In short, most countries in the world do not want China to succeed
And so we have the reality today: China is way too indebted and a wave of defaults has commenced. Factories and firms have moved out of China. Luxury sales have crashed 50%. Home sales in 2019 have crashed 60%. account deficit will be negative for the year. Import and export are all down. And the hike in tariff is yet to come. This is all happening in the background of declining fertility, population contraction in 2030, and middle income trap, where most Chinese earn less than $1000/month.