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Comment by throwaway2048 | Hacker News Reader

throwaway2048

China is definitely a cautionary tale that just building extra housing, even absolutely absurd amounts of extra housing to the tune of tens of millions of extra unused units, isn't enough to address the affordability in housing crises.

The problem in China, like pretty much everywhere else, is treating housing as a "surefire" speculative investment that is always increasing in price.

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Sure. You also need high enough property tax rates that it’s not attractive as a speculative investment.

But in China’s case, it seems like it’s a glut of money seeking a place to sit that doesn’t have other safe places to go. I’m guessing the values will crater, as the housing supply glut eventually does its job.

I mean, it sounds like there's a glut of unused housing kind of in the middle of nowhere, not in desirable cities like Beijing and Shanghai.

Building massive amounts of housing in the central valley wouldn't help the housing problem in the bay area.

But making the Central Valley as desirable as the Bay Area to live in would help the housing problem. Do this by building not only housing, but better infrastructure (roads, rail, schools) and create incentives for Bay Area businesses to relocate there (including the stick for those that don't).

Forcing companies to spread out doesn't make sense - they get value from being close together. The network effect is much more important than infrastructure.

Exactly. The Central valley is already cheaper than the bay area. The fact that tech companies aren't relocating out there tells you something.

What's the point in doing this? The bay area isn't dense at all, building up would be easy, and better for the environment to boot.

Couldn't you live in the mountains? Where will we grow food? Already, the Bay Area development ruined some of the world's best farmland. There was no better place to grow apricots than San Jose, and now that is gone forever. Central Valley farmers feed the nation and beyond.

We'll grow food where it makes more sense. California has to pipe in water for those crops, and because migrant labor is getting hard to come by, the produce rots on the plant. The Colorado river is drying up south of the border because so much of it is being used. That farmland is gone. There is plenty of farmland that doesn't have to be in the state. The crops can be grown else where and shipped in like bananas. If there is enough demand. We always have bananas in season because they are grown around the world and shipped in. The US is also a net exporter of food, we grow plenty enough to feed ourselves either way.

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