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I wish he shared more reasoning in why he decided in 2017 being the pivotal year. I mostly agree with 2017 being a bad year for the bay area startup as that was the period where a lot of the top startups like airbnb, uber, and theranos were getting significant negative outlooks, and probably some others that I have forgotten about.

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I think it basically became the year when the "norm" for talent in SF Bay Area was 1) work at a FAANG or 2) work at a late stage private co (like Uber).

Working at an early stage startup was already risky, but the opportunity cost sort of peaked around then and remains high.

Unless the opportunity cost noticeably drops (i.e. a massive recession that causes a 50%+ drop in public stock market) I think smaller startups will thrive in places like NYC more so than SF.

I completely agree Right now, it is simply not worth it to work for smaller companies.

Larger companies have an inherent sales and marketing advantage due to brand size. If 20 engineers at a small startup develop a product and 20 engineers at some big co develop a similar product the latter will generally outsell the former. The big can consequently also pay its engineers more since it is able to make more money from the fruits of their labor.

> like airbnb, uber, and theranos

One of them is not like the other

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