what does Apple have on the horizon -- data services? an emphasis on the privacy protecting ecosystem?
where is the new vision?
AMZN on the other hand ...
They could become a good force in the cloud after netsuite purchase.
Health is a diverse, messy, market. Apple's schtick has always been making devices that make computing magical, and health would be a huge shift away from that.
IMO the market is really looking for a a powerful all-in-one diagnostic health appliance - something like the analyser Theranos was pitching for, but which actually works, and is more comprehensive.
De-industrialising health and making the personal equivalent of a diagnostic lab that could keep track of key markers, watch nutrition, exercise, and supplements, and transfer information to doctors - AI or human - would be a major breakthrough.
But the technology for that doesn't exist yet. And even it becomes available it may not be affordable or portable.
And because bodily fluids are involved it conflicts with the Apple image of clean minimalism.
That leaves health as set of tentative fragmented tools and services which provide reassurance here and there - like the fall notification in Watch - but are a long way short of a comprehensive service.
The fitness market is a more obvious choice. But if you look at Apple's record, it's not inspiring. Fitbit is a strong competitor, because Watch hasn't lived up to its potential - possibly because Apple can't decide if Watch should be a fashion statement or a personal fitness device. It doesn't really make sense to consumers to try to sell it as both.
Behind all of that, I just can't see the current management team having the skill or imagination to make it happen. I think health is going to remain a side interest - a nice add-on, but not a huge new core market that Apple can expand into.
Your insurance pays like $3k to wear a heart monitor for a day or two.
Health is a privacy sensitive industry and Apple is the only company that has been selling privacy as a core feature.
This is squarely within Apple’s target and they will bet big on it.
Apple has enormous margins to defend. If they cruise for a decade their margins will approach the average margins of the industry because people will no longer pay extra for the brand.
1. Still Growing number of iPhone users, 900M as of the end of 2018. I made a prediction in 2015 / 2016 that Apple could reach the unthinkable ( At the time ) 1B iPhone user by 2020, looks like they are well on course to do that. There will be roughly ~3.5B Smartphone users world wide in 2020. Even if Apple does't grow its user base anymore. Selling to its 1B Customer, which are also the higher spending group, would still be a lucrative business that not many other company could match.
2. Health - When it comes to Health, people don't want to spend money on a brand that that cant trust. So even if company X has an exact replica of Apple Watch with exact software and function, people would still trust Apple and spend 50% or more on it. Also worth mentioning the group of people who cares about health are also likely the one who are passed mid life and has higher deposable income. And health insurance company loves these Data. I am actually surprised at how affordable Apple priced the Apple Watch S4, they could have jack up the price in US purely on the ECG function. ( I have heard many stories about parents want to buy the Apple Watch *immediately8 after reading or watching the Apple Keynote, I am also surpassed how many non-tech people actually do watch the keynote live )
3. Services - It is a growing segment but honestly, even if Apple Attract 100M Apple Music + Apple TV Subs at $20 combined, that is only $6B per quarter, roughly 10 - 15% increase of their current revenue. It is not a huge percentage, but it is hard for Apple to grow when it is so big. I think the future is Apple offering 24+ Months of Financing ( leaving the 24 months for Carrier ) , like 36 / 48 months for iPhone, charged to their Apple Credit Card, Operated and Backed by Goldman Sachs. Bundles along with other high margin product like AppleCare+. This could potentially be the next revenue and profits growth.
4. The Mac and iPad still have yet to show their full potential. There is no reason why Apple could not gain a 200M+ Mac User base. And iPad / iPad Pro still needs to battle out the Education and Pro Segment.