politics which dictates who has to be involved in planning, building, and whatnot, and the courts as every special interest group wants their payout.
Just look at how the costs of the California's folly of a high speed rail turned out. It was just one state but had all issues rolled into one.
Big grandiose projects need special handling, not walking all over the environment type rules, but handling to expedite them and insure the best bidders along the way are involved and enough rules to keep the legal system mostly on the side lines. I don't think that is possible anymore. We simply have so much bureaucracy both in legislative and the courts that there are too many hands to reach into the pot
I’m curious how China’s pre-UHV power grid investments compare to the US’s. Did China build its conventional infrastructure at prices already reduced by the global market and therefore pay much less than the US did when it was trailblazing, like China is today? How is China going to manage it’s by-then outdated infrastructure 50 years from now?
Maybe more important for “long term thinking” isn’t how can we build the coolest thing today, but how can we do a decent job of keeping pace with innovation.
The cost per km of the proposed California high-speed line is somewhat greater than similar lines in European countries, say, but you'd expect this, because no-one's ever built one in the US before (except for small sections of the Acela one).
Infrastructure in Paris or Madrid isn't much different than in New York or Boston. And infrastructure in the middle of nowhere Romania isn't that much different than infrastructure in North Dakota.
I've been multiple times to San Francisco and Seattle though, which I still consider to be first-tier US cities and their overall infrastructure* is certainly no match for Western EU's first-tier cities.
IMHO, one area where US infrastructure is markedly superior is the financial infrastructure (availability of capital, legal system) which is on the intangible side of things.
* Roads, Rail, Power Grid, Water Grid, Fiber networks, Public transport, Schools, Hospitals, Police, Fire Departments
Surely a lot of the troubles are Romania’s own fault managing the transition post communism, but I think the interesting part is how does the global market for energy, in this case, decentivize a country to maintain its own infrastructure?
Europe's a big place, infrastructure development varies widely. Global top 10 according to the World Bank:
Germany 4.37
Japan 4.25
Sweden 4.24
Netherlands 4.21
Austria 4.18
Singapore 4.06
U. States 4.05
U. Kingdom 4.03
Switzerland 4.02
U.A.E. 4.02
China is #20, just behind Spain. I'd have to average EU, and European data to compare Europe as a whole with China and the US. (But which European nations should I include?)Like if I average the EU28 total I get 3.48 which is just below China and well below the US because there is the infrastructure of Bulgaria and Lithuania (on offence guys!) at the low end and Germany and Sweden at the high end. I am sure the infrastructure of Western China is a night-and-day difference to the coastal South and East. I imagine the US is a lot more uniform.
Here are a few things Hong Kong is superior: Cashless payments, extensive metro/train network, efficient/big airport, high speed internet.
New York is not even as good/efficient as Hong Kong. Now the case can be made that you make more money working in New York than in HK but the comparison is about infrastructure.
The NY subway is one of the shittiest I have tried (and it seems like it breaks often).
Japan continued its huge infrastructure build postwar but even by the 1970s (Narita airport) it was more difficult.
The next iteration of their high speed rail (SC Maglev) has been in development since the 1970s, with a test track built in 1990. It is under construction now and isn’t planned to be fully operational until 2037.
Compare that with the bullet train, which began development in 1939, construction in the 1950s, and was done in time for the Tokyo Olympics in 1964.
A trackway eats up a massive amount of land and cuts through many different county lines and property boundaries. Even the guy who planned out Market Street in San Francisco had to flee across the Golden Gate on a Ferry once large property owners got wind of his enormous boulevard cutting diagonally across the city.
No matter what you build, or when you build it, people are going to object. I think what changes is the denser your body of law, the easier it is for people to drag projects into the court room, even many different times, for many seemingly legitimate objections. Maybe you don’t stop a project legally, but you halt progress long enough that the costs go up substantially, in a labour market which is already quite expensive and unions fairly common.
If you could easily steamroll any objections, seize the property you want to use without going to court, didn’t have to face environmental concerns, didn’t have to hire unionized labor, and essentially didn’t have to answer to anybody, I imagine the CAHSR would have been built 5 years ago, ahead of time, under budget, and already planning extensions to Redding, Las Vegas and up the Golden Gate Bridge through the Sonoma Valley and up the North Coast with long term (10 year) plans to run a line from San Diego to New Orleans. Alas, we have the Rule of Law, and the Law is very thick.
The only difference is that the govt there can do whatever they want and they decided that infrastructure is the way to go.
American politicians don't have those visions of magnificient infrastructure any more. All they want to do is play divisive politics.
Pinning it on politicians is somewhat fair, but the voters share responsibility on this one. They've made it pretty clear that if there is spare money in the budget it should be directed to checks US Federal Budget social security, healthcare and the military in that order.
I suspect China's programs in those areas are not as advanced as America's. That leaves more financial room for infrastructure.
Maybe American politicians don’t dream of magnificent infrastructure because we don’t have a clear dream today. Five decades ago there were so many highways clearly worth paving, so many drying machines needing power. Most of the infrastructure we’d probably agree we need today (trains, renewable energy, whatever) isn’t enabaling radically new possibilities like the first highways or energy grids did, even though it’s clearly worth building. There also isn’t as much universal appeal for building Big due to the progress of environment awareness, for example. Politicians sell dreams and maybe our dream for infrastructure is too murky to give them strong footing.
During electrification of America, American cities were tiny. This vast emptiness enabled massive planned wiring of cities to hubs and power plants from great distances. China was already massively populated. The fact that they have so much electrification within 20 years is just amazing.
>> Most of the infrastructure we’d probably agree we need today (trains, renewable energy, whatever) isn’t enabaling radically new possibilities like the first highways or energy grids did, even though it’s clearly worth building
I'm not sure how you get this. Trains are a proven great enabler. Beijing to Shanghai is 4.5 hours for 800 miles. LA to SF is 5.5 hours for 400 miles. 4.5 hours without having car ownership quite literally enables people and goods to move around more rapidly, causing opportunity to meet capital and talent. I cannot describe how important this is.
Renewable energy was a chance at creating another brand new manufacturing sector. The number of electric buses in Chinese cities are just mind boggling. It creates this massive industry of manufacturing and supplying parts, research, education in universities, smarter companies. America literally hemorrhaged this in favor of supporting rich buddies in oil.
I'm sorry. Maybe its time for enough Americans to travel abroad to see how rapidly these countries have developed from their almost medieval lives only 40 years ago.
I guess they must not like the competition or something.
The truth of that varies wildly depending on what you think 'a real problem' is. Debt is great fun for everyone until the paying-it-back part really sets in. When governments consume resources for their own ends someone has to go without.
You probably already know the standard arguments, but to rehash government services tend not to 'compete' they tend to 'crush'. Competition is bound by the fact that all the players have to create more value than they consume, putting a floor under what companies will attempt. Governments have no such constraint, and can easily create ventures that provide more than private concerns by devoting more resources to it than a rational person would, destroying value along the way.
That is great in the micro- and woeful in the macro- because now some other more important thing is not being done.
Take libraries for example, if all the public libraries were closed, nobody would open up a new privately funded and operated for-profit library service, except perhaps for very narrow specific geographic and topical markets. It could never make money in the form the public sector is able to provide it. The same goes for many other such services.
The closest we get to private sector participation for such things is the public sector contracting out public services to private providers. The problem with that is there often isn't really a functioning efficient market for such services since there's only one buyer and very often only a few practical providers, so it can be very hit and miss if such arrangements turn out to be efficient.
Clearly it sometimes is possible for the public sector to provide services competitively with private alternatives. Nobody in Europe is clamouring to copy the dumpster fire that is the US health insurance system. Conversely SpaceX is proving that something that was always assumed to be only within the capability of a state is actually quite tractable to private initiative and commercialisation. I think in these things it pays to be flexible and watch out for inflection points.
This was to some extent true in the mid 20th century too, but much of those projects were built on empty land, and since then we've also built many layers of regulations and hired armies of regulators, all focused of finding ways and reasons to say NO to change.
What if the Party wants something what will happen? Not sure 100% about China, but in such systems you either go with the flow or...best case scenario you'll get audited, Chinese style.
But the US Senate has political parties, and heck, even our political parties have various factions.
And I'm sure the Party has its own factions as well, and they play the political game that humans play in order to arrive at some semblance of a story we can tell.
(Granted it also seems to me that the CCP is more unified, but I don't know if it's actually true or if it's because all of their arguments happen behind closed doors.)
For mega-infrastructure projects like there powergrids or the California highspeed railroad, eminent domain might be like bringing a knife to a tank fight.
Its not cheap. But, thats what re-capitalization of a public utility function is all about: the thing which makes no sense to any individual profit-seeker but which delivers a non-profit moment for the entire community: safer, (less polluting) more efficient (less loss in transmission, less loss of ephemeral power) and more resilient power.
"it costs more" is a false argument. All improvements "cost more" the question is "are they worth it" and I personally believe (very strongly) btw they are. I absolutely concede there is a case to be put "no, they aren't worth it" but I would prefer that case and the pro-case is made by operations-research, economists, power engineers than the Koch brothers.
It is very unlikely under current economic climate, that any of the TVA, or the west coast power, or a myriad of state investments made in the 30s 40s and 50s would be done: Not because they are bad, but because they generate low profit outcomes, and we have forgotten why corporate entities were invented in the first place. If you don't agree, consider the giant cluster-fuck of US bridges in urgent need of repair and the logjam behind "who pays" with the current federal government favouring handing the assets to private sector investors to maintain and then charge to use, compared to a more normal (I mean worldwide) model of using tax and other central spend planning to pay for utility infrastructure.
Which do you think makes more sense?
What city is this? The US doesn't have a single city in the top 500. China makes up about half of the list.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-polluted_cities_b...
Not quite, we changed our priorities considerably. The US shifted its government expenditures to welfare, entitlements and standing-military spending. The US has dramatically expanded its social safety net over the last four or five decades. You can see that by checking the federal budget by decade and how its allocation has changed. Properly few voters want to go back to 1955, they'd rather we continue paying for free healthcare for the bottom 1/4, at a cost of ~$650 billion per year. If you give those people a choice between national high-speed rail and their health coverage, they'll choose health coverage every time. The mistake in the case of the US, is in not having built eg high-speed rail when it could have done it, before welfare and entitlement spending demands got so massive.
In short, the US system, the social contract, has fundamentally, permanently changed. There's no scenario where it will or ever can do infrastructure like it did 60 or 80 years ago, because the government allocations can never be like they were. It's comparing two entirely different systems of spending demand & allocation, along with entirely different social expectations.
China is currently undergoing exactly the same transformation as it seeks to build out a social safety net. As that proceeds, they'll no longer be fiscally capable of the infrastructure spending they've been undertaking the prior ~20 years. Social welfare spending demands will rise perpetually, particularly given the rate at which their society is aging. Right now the average pension in China is about $200 per year, and their pension system is already financially tipping over. That won't stand, China will be forced to allocate dramatically greater spending to social welfare over time. China is about to start running twin deficits, on their fiscal budget (already bad) and their trade. I don't see a scenario going forward where they can both meet the social demands of an aging population that wants a far greater social safety net and the free-wheeling infrastructure spending behavior of their past. They'll be forced to choose, as every other developed nation has.
It is harder to calculate given hard numbers only exist if things go wrong.
Not paying for vaccination or hygenic programs leads to outbreaks which are expensive to contain and not containing leads to even more. Even literally leaving people to die in the street still generates expenses
The evidence shows that social welfare spending can increase future costs. For example it increases the percentage of women who have children out of wedlock. The increase in social welfare spending is the primary reason why the percentage of children born to single parents rose from about 4% in 1948 to 40% today. That in turn increases nearly every type of socioeconomic problem.
There are undoubtedly other factors as well, but the expansion of social spending is one of the major ones.
https://sci-hub.tw/https://www.jstor.org/stable/352802?seq=1...)
>Public assistance also had large, statistically significant effects on all of the dependent variables. All else equal, higher levels of public assistance were associated with lower prevalence of marriage for black men and black women, lower prevalence of husband-wife families, lower percentage of marital births for black women, and lower percentage of black children living in husband-wife families. These results differed from those reported in some previous aggregate-level studies (e.g., Ellwood & Bane, 1985; Ellwood & Summers, 1986), but they were quite robust and were substantively as well as statistically significant. For example, the difference between $150 and $250 in average support per recipient child (a difference of 0.51 in the natural log version, which is only slightly larger than the sample standard deviation for the variable) translates into a 4.4-point difference in the expected percentage of marital births for black women aged 20-24, a difference of nearly 2.4 points in the expected percentage of black children residing in husband-wife families, and a 3.5 point difference in the expected percentage of married for women with children 0-5.
https://sci-hub.tw/https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1061045....
>These estimated impacts were then combined to measure "final" effects on the total illegitimacy rate - out-of-wedlock births per 1,000 women in the population. The outcome of this experiment was a hypothetical decrease in total illegitimacy rates - as of the end of the estimation period in 1992 - of about 15 percent for whites and slightly under 7 percent for blacks. The differential effects are almost entirely accounted for by the disparities in the determinants of marital status noted above. > >Narrowly defined, our goal in this study has been to test the linkage between welfare benefits and illegitimate births. The econometric evidence presented here has strongly supported this connection. More broadly, however, this study implicates the welfare system in the growth of illegitimacy
Because from where I'm standing it seems that it's the political will what is missing.
And, as expected, the inefficiency of the US welfare system was not even brought up.
>...the State Grid Corp. of China, a state-owned company that runs most of China’s transmission and distribution grids..