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And whatever you choose, TEST YOUR BACKUPS. Spin up a new instance and practice recovery. This needs to be done at least quarterly, both to test your backups and train yourself and/or your people in this process.

I have not done this for a number of years, but in the past for my own and customer projects I would just run Postgres on the same VPS as the web app but use a cronjob to write incremental backups every few hours to S3.

As other people here have said, agreeing with you, paying for multiple availability zone RDS or paying Heroku is also a good plan.

Please write everything down and be kind to 'Future You'.

I am very anti-spending money on software that isn't directly related to a project but a $10 confluence wiki lifetime license is one of the best purchases I have ever made.