Uhh is this assuming that the US is just sitting still? Scrambling of fighter jets can vary and much is just speculation on how fast they can scramble, wonder which time they went with in this think-tank . Found an interesting discussion on how fast an F-22 can scramble [0]
In general I would be interested in how these "simulated wargames" are being created.
[0] "How fast can an F-22 scramble?" https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/9703/how-fast-c...