Comment by squarecog | Hacker News Reader

Comment by squarecog | Hacker News Reader

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Can you explain which part, in your opinion, is facepalm worthy?

In your example conversation, the developer starts off by demonstrating that they are not good at thinking through how long things take them, by giving an impossibly optimistic estimate. Even the PM, whose job is not to figure out how to build stuff or how long building stuff takes, knows the estimate is wrong, and pushes back on it, pointing out dependencies the Dev appears to not have considered.

The dev comes back with another estimate, also provided on the spot, without actually thinking through all the tasks, problems, and potential ways to streamline / accelerate. The PM, having just had the dev's lack of thorough thinking with regards to complexity estimation amply demonstrated, asks the Dev to think more carefully, a third time.

Are we facepalming at the dev who can't be bothered to actually consider what it will take to get the thing done, or the PM who for some reason accepts the 3rd estimate, even though the dev appears to just be randomly generating numbers? Both?

I'm facepalming at both of them:

1. The PM just wanted it done by Friday, because the customer wanted it by Monday. This was clear at the end of the conversation, not at the beginning. So it just could have been a "Can you get this done by Friday? Because the customer wants to use it on Monday"

2. The developer clearly had no backbone, and was just throwing numbers to see what the project manager would like. 1 day? Too short! 5 days? Too long! 3? Perfect! Estimates might be a guessing game, but not a guessing game on how long the PM thinks it should take.

So yeah, facepalm to both of them, and the whole situation. But I must say that they were definitely not incompetent people. The PM was one of the best I worked with, and the dev was a smart passionate coder. It was just that situation that was a bit absurd.

Proper way on how to do this:

PM: Can you give me a deadline (not estimate!) on when you can finish X? The customer needs this ASAP, so it has priority over your other tasks.

DEV: Let me look into it and I'll let you know in half an hour. (Works out estimate, possibly asking input, adds a buffer because deadline != estimate, looks into his own schedule of meetings etc).

DEV: I can get it ready by Tuesday.

PM: I'll notify the customer.

It's this part where the estimate becomes a deadline:

> PM: "That is perfect! The customer wanted to put in production on Monday, so we can now confirm. Thanks!"

> pointing out dependencies the Dev appears to not have considered.

I'm not sure if they're dependencies or other priorities in this case. I've had managers before ask for an estimate and and I've given them one (2 days), then they've assumed that I'm dropping everything I'm in the middle of and told clients it would be done in 2 days.

The problem with estimates is that the people asking for them really want promises.

> can't be bothered

or who doesn't know that "I'll need some time to get back to you on that" is an acceptable part of their vocabulary.

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