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Comment by chailatte | Hacker News Reader

Next year austerity and rising interest rate will take root in major economies, forced by runaway inflation in food, gas and commodity prices - caused by massive printing by US/Europe/Japan/China. This will result in money in flight from risky investments (emerging countries, startups, expansions) to safe investments, which will cause job losses in many of those sectors. Healthcare and Food industries will grow. Entertainment, Advertising, Construction and Transportation industries will wither.

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This is a curious expectation, but it feels right to me (with a degree in economics). Recessions are usually preceded by inflation, not followed, However, wars are usually followed by inflation. Since 1960 inflation has been over 600%, energy about 850%. My expectation, is that a huge amount of money has been pumped in to the economy to pay for the wars and the bail-outs. The money is being absorbed by the wars and the trade deficits. I think the current situation is unstable and it will blow up, perhaps in 2012. Certainly any austerity program that hits the middle class hard, and all the Rep. proposals do, will trigger political thrashing and immense hardship, something approaching the severity of the Depression, or we will get the typical end of war inflation.

I agree with you, but I think your terminology is inexact when you say:

"The money is being absorbed by the wars and the trade deficits."

Wars do not absorb money, they absorb wealth -- money is paid to make a bullet, and after the bullet is shot the money remains to decrease the value of all money, and the bullet is gone.

Trade deficits can move accumulated wealth (or money) around, but they also don't absorb it; a foreign country might absorb money, if they decide to stockpile it.

It felt awkward when I wrote it. You are right. The wealth is absorbed/destroyed, but the money is still there with fewer goods to purchase, hence inflation (eventually).

Your thoughts about inflation are interesting, as I've been expecting them year after year. I'm now convinced there's an effort to spin plates for want of a better word on a more or less global scale. If one major economy goes down it would drag others down with it. I don't think we'll see hyperinflation in the conventional sense, but to put it into perspective we have seen massive inflation in specific targeted areas (food, drink, petrol) in specific economies. I think there may be interesting arbitrage opportunities for some next year resulting from this, but I don't see a major hyperinflation event occuring (at least not on the scale where oil went up to nearly $200) next year.

2012 maybe (but not for the UK due to the Olympics - yes I believe that event alone will cause a loss that will cost us dearly in the long run but may delay the inevitable).

That reminds me: there will likely be a default by a major country next year that will drag every economy in the world along with it. My belief is that it will be Ireland, which will affect UK tremendously, since a lot of the Irish debt is held by UK.

Wow, Ireland is in a world of hurt. External debt is 10x GDP. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_d.... The US is at 94%, but Europe is way worse. Luxembourg is 38x. Could that be correct? Where is all this money roosting? For the US it's China, Japan, and OPEC, with China way out ahead.

I think it is almost more meaningful to compare Luxembourg to lower Manhattan than to other countries.

Its 'problem' is that it has a huge banking sector for its 500k inhabitants. That brings in lots of money (Luxembourg is the richest country in the EU), but also imports risks.

I do not know where their banks invest their money, but chances are that a fair amount of it is in euro, and that they have been bringing down their investments in the weaker euro countries.

It can't default because it has already received the necessary funds from ECB and IMF. My take Spain is next.

Anyways, lets not turn HN to ZeroHedge :)

I will bet on Portugal, dragging down Spain in it fall.

I'm down for either Portugal or Spain. Ireland will be bailed out and everyone will be fine, but by the time we get to Portugal there'll be no money left. On the other hand, Spain may have such an impact that the sudden realisation that this is the last bailout may well tip countries over the edge.

My prediction:

Overall price inflation in the USA will remain low.

I am curious to know your reasoning. In a post in this thread I was leaning towards inflation in a few years, with the other possibility being a long recession or Japanese style stagflation. The downside would come from an austerity program hitting the middle class.

Because deleveraging of the banking system produces a deflationary shock. The Fed is trying to offset this, but for political reasons can only partially (people would cry "currency debasement!" - and already do).

Scott Sumner has written some things on this: http://www.themoneyillusion.com/

The fact that interest rates are very low is also a hint that maybe inflation expectations are not very high.

A good source for the relevant interest rates: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bond... (yield column). You can also compare to Japan there.

Japan style stagflation? Japan has been suffering deflation during its recent period of stagnation. Indeed, the Japan central bank has long worked hard to insure that inflation in Japan remains roughly 0%, and they have on average succeeded at this, with some years the yen increasing in value and some years decreasing - but generally these changes cancelling out. Indeed, many people like Milton Friedman have blamed the bank's insistance on 0 inflation for playing a role in Japans economic problems.

I wouldn't bet on inflation. Inflation is most directly caused by people's expectations about inflation - and the market's expectations as seen in the difference in price between inflation protected securities and securities that aren't inflation protected (the TIPS spread) is still that inflation will remain low.

What do you consider "safe" in a super-inflationary environment? Safety is generally regarded as being cash or bonds, but those become the absolute worst asset classes to hold during very high inflation.

Things that are in short supply that are either essentials or are regarded to be able to preserve its worth. Food, water, gold, silver, platinum, strong currency, high art, etc.

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