538's forecast was easily the most accurate for November 2016, by a decent margin. The majority of critics of 538 are "sore winners" who delight in their side having won despite being given a less than 50% chance, but as Silver pointed out at the time: his chances were similar to those in Russian Roulette, and most people consider that too risky to play.
If a model says 75% chance of X rather than Y, that doesn’t mean you should expect X. Depending on context, you might be better off flagging it as unclear or even safer to conclude a possible Y.
Testing calibration of many models across many different trials as a test of data scientist competence is a little strange, but if you want to answer the question of how valuable the predicted likelihood’s are, it’s a decent measure.
No, Investor’s Business Daily was the most accurate.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pund...