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But we should expect the plus or minus to be fairly evenly distributed if there weren't an underlying reason besides randomness and small sample sizes. That would lead to regions with lots of blue/red/yellow speckling. Instead we see fairly homogeneous regions of red and blue with transition zones between them. This definitely doesn't look like a noisy undersampled data set

Thank you for the reference. Imagine where we would be if everyone provided sources to their statements like that...

Wyoming and Idaho should have the same problem but appear pretty blue.

That's the plus or minus part.